Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - February 13, 2017 - 6:21am
bottom line

On steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW-NE-E there is a MODERATE danger for triggering a recently formed wind slab or cornice fall avalanche. Stay well back from the edge of cornices and avoid steep, wind drifted slopes. By staying out of the most wind affected areas, you can find mostly LOW danger.

If the sun pokes out today, there will be a MODERATE danger for loose, wet slide activity on steep, sun exposed slopes.




special announcement
current conditions

6" of dense, new snow Saturday night put a nice refresh on conditions though in most areas you can still feel the underlying snow surface. Skies were mostly cloudy on Sunday but by afternoon warm temperatures had moistened the snow surface at lower elevations, and a fine mist hung in the air making it feel like the Pacific Northwest. SE winds on Sunday blew just enough to move snow around along upper elevation ridge crests. Winds are mostly calm this morning and it's 21 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak, and 31 at the Geyser Pass Traihead.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity

On Sunday I observed several loose snow sluffs and a few natural cornice falls on upper elevation, northerly aspects. I was also able to intentionally trigger an avalanche with a cornice drop on a north facing, wind loaded slope at 11,600'. Though isolated to the ridge crest, it broke about 350 wide, entraining loose surface snow and running for about 500' vertical.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Ridge crest wind slabs formed on Sunday will still be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider today. Mostly shallow and manageable, they can still boss you around a bit if they catch you unaware in steep terrain. You will find these slabs in the highest elevations, on steep slopes that face NW-NE-E. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid areas with recent deposits of wind drifted snow, and stiff, hollow feeling slabs.


On Sunday, I found plenty of wind slabs such as this along upper elevation, northerly facing ridge crests. By dropping down out of the wind affected area you can find loose, settled powder with little to no danger.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Sensitive cornices have formed in some locations along upper elevation ridge crests above slopes that face NW-NE-E. On Sunday, I found that they cracked out fairly easily, and in some cases were connected for great distances. Though they can be used as indicators of stability, avoid getting close to the edge when you are unable to determine how far they are overhanging.
Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

If the sun pokes out today it will quickly turn the loose, dry snow lying around into loose, wet snow that wants to slide off. Be alert to changing conditions on sun exposed slopes, and look for signs of instability such as roller balls, pinwheels, and wet, sloppy snow.
weather

Monday

A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 30. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the morning.

Monday Night

A 10 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 31. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 20. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 35.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 24.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 37.

Thursday Night

A chance of snow showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Friday

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
general announcements

Road conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed with a mix of packed snow, dirt, and mud at lower elevations.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.