Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - February 11, 2017 - 6:49am
bottom line

Today look for an increasing MODERATE danger for newly deposited wind slabs, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that faces NW-N-E. Snow totals today will directly influence the degree of danger, and backcountry travelers will need to be alert to changing conditions. Avoid newly deposited wind drifts in steep terrain, and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. There is also a MODERATE danger for loose, wet slide activity, primarily at lower elevations. Avoid steep slopes with a wet, or punchy, unsupportable surface.




special announcement
current conditions

Temperatures have finally cooled to just above freezing at 10,000', and southwest winds are cranking in the 25-30 mph range with gusts into the 50's. Extremely warm temperatures over the past few days have turned the snowpack at mid and lower elevations into the consistency of a snow cone, and strong winds from the southwest have hammered the upper elevations. A refresh is in sight, but I can't say I would rush right out there this morning. Timing, and snow fall amounts from this warm and complicated system are uncertain. I spoke with NWS forecasters this morning and their confidence in the current forecast was low, but we may see 4" of new snow by days end.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

Upper elevation, northerly aspects, in addition to being very filled in, have the smooth, pillowy appearance of recently deposited, wind drifted snow. South and westerly aspects, like the slope in the foreground, are sun baked and wind scoured.

recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

An increase in avalanche danger will directly correlate to snow fall amounts. As new snow accumulates, be alert to fresh wind drifts and developing wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. New wind slabs will be mostly shallow and should fit into the "manageable" category, but give them a little test before committing to steep terrain. There may also be a few older wind slabs formed earlier in the week that could be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Suspect any smooth, rounded pillow of wind deposited snow.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Cooler temperatures and clouds will help put a stop to loose, wet snow instabilities, but it's been a few days since we had a solid refreeze at mid and lower elevations. If you find yourself on a punchy, unsupportable surface with Slurpee like snow underneath, find another place to be if the slope you are on is steeper than about 35 degrees.

weather

A warm, moist storm system will move through our area today and tonight, though timing and snowfall amounts are uncertain. Best estimate is for 3-5" today with snow continuing through tomorrow. Southwest winds will average 15-20 mph with gusts in the 30's, and daytime high temperatures will be right around freezing at 10,000'.

general announcements

Road conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed with a mix of packed snow, dirt, and mud at lower elevations.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.