Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - February 6, 2017 - 6:53am
bottom line

Mostly stable snow conditions exist and the avalanche danger is generally LOW. That said, low danger doesn't mean no danger, and there may still be isolated areas of unstable snow where a person could trigger an avalanche. The most likely areas for finding trouble are on steep northerly facing aspects, on upper elevation, wind exposed slopes, and in areas of rocky, more extreme terrain.

A storm is on track to affect the region and changing weather also means changing avalanche conditions. I don't expect much of a change today, but as snowfall accumulations mount, be on the lookout for fresh wind slabs developing along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features.




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current conditions

It's been two weeks since the last significant snowfall, and the snow surface consists of a variety of wind and sun crusts. Stormy conditions are lining up through the week but the first round doesn't look to be a big producer. We may see a few inches of new snow accumulation by Tuesday night.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak. (11,700')

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin. (10,000')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Mostly stable snow conditions exist and I don't expect forecasted snow totals today to change that. That said, low danger doesn't mean no danger, and there may still be isolated areas of unstable snow where a person could trigger an avalanche. The most likely areas for finding trouble are on steep northerly facing aspects, on upper elevation, wind exposed slopes, and in areas of rocky, more extreme terrain. In these areas you may still be able to trigger a stiff, shallow wind slab, or a deeper persistent slab.

Changing weather also means changing avalanche conditions, and you will need to monitor the storm over the next couple of days. As snowfall accumulations mount, expect to find fresh wind slabs developing along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features. If we get upwards of 6" of new snow, fresh drifts will begin to pose a significant hazard.

weather

A Pacific storm system is moving into the region but we appear to be far from the cross hairs. Snow showers should begin this afternoon and linger through Tuesday. On the optimistic end we could see 6" by Tuesday night. Another system will move into the area on Friday.

Today

Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday

A chance of snow showers before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

general announcements

Road conditions: The road is plowed and mostly snow packed with some patches of dirt and ice down low.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.