Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - January 19, 2017 - 6:46am
bottom line

Most terrain offers LOW danger this morning, but a MODERATE danger still exists on upper elevation northerly aspects. With wind and snow in the forecast be alert to developing wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features as the day progresses. Isolated areas remain where a person could trigger an old, hard wind slab or deeper persistent slab. Primary areas of concern are steep, rocky, upper-mid to upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E. Pay special attention to slopes that have steep convexities and blind break-overs - this type of terrain can lure you far down slope, well below where an avalanche is likely to fracture.




special announcement

Road Conditions: The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but snowpacked and slick. 4wd is highly recommended if not imperative.

Backcountry 101 Avalanche Class

We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche class on Feb 3, 4. This course will include a night classroom session and a day in the field. Cost is $125 with proceeds to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center Moab. For more information or to sign up go here.
current conditions

If you missed yesterday in the mountains I'm sorry about that, it was gorgeous to say the least. Settled powder remains in sheltered locations but wind and sun have begun to take a toll on the snow surface in exposed locations. Hopefully we are about to press the reset button as a series of progressively stronger storm systems being to affect our area starting later today. High clouds have begin streaming in, and southerly winds have been on the increase and are blowing in the 20-30 mph range on Pre-Laurel Peak. It's currently 16 degrees up there and 25 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 54

For a list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity

On Monday, two visiting skiers/snowboarders triggered a persistent slab avalanche on the lower portion of Gravel Pit Lanes on the NE face of Tukno at 11,000'. This spot is a repeat offender that was responsible for an avalanche injury last season. Steep and rocky, and with a sharp convexity, this represents the type of terrain where one would still be most likely to trigger an avalanche. Fortunately, no one was caught. Check out the full report from Dave Garcia who spoke to the party in the parking lot.


(Dave Garcia photos)
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

By this afternoon you will need to be on the lookout for newly formed, soft, shallow wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They shouldn't pose much of a problem but may be able to sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff. It may also still be possible to trigger an old, hard wind slab in more extreme upper elevation terrain. Suspect fat looking rolls, and beware of steep convexities and blind break overs.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Though making up an increasingly smaller portion of the terrain, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on buried weak layers of faceted snow. Steep, rocky, northerly facing terrain, starting a few hundred feet below tree line, remains the most suspect. Be wary of steep convexities, blind break overs, and high consequence terrain.

weather

A series of progressively strengthening storm systems are slated to affect our area over the next several days. Today look for increasing clouds with snow beginning to fall by late morning.

Today

Snow, mainly after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 10am, then patchy blowing snow after 11am. High near 23. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. South southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 20. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Patchy blowing snow after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
general announcements

Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is snow packed and slick and 4wd is recommended..

Grooming: Jason and Travis set fresh classic track and corduroy on all the trails on Monday, and finished up in just in time to see a great sunset! Thanks guys!


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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.