Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - January 7, 2017 - 6:51am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that has recent deposits of wind drifted snow. The danger is most pronounced on slopes that face N-NE-E, but cross loading has affected terrain on all aspects in the wind zone. Avoid slopes that have smooth, rounded pillows, and suspect the lee sides of terrain features such as sub ridges and gully walls. There is also an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a deeper, persistent slab avalanche on upper-mid to upper elevation slopes that face NW-NE-SE. Low elevation offers mostly LOW danger.
special announcement

Grand County plowed yesterday and the road is open and clear.

We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche class on Feb 3, 4. This course will include a night classroom session and a day in the field. Cost is $125 with proceeds to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center Moab. For more information or to sign up go here.
current conditions

Bluebird, calm, and cold best described conditions in the mountains yesterday. Snow totals varied, all the more so due to winds during the storm, but in sheltered areas today you will find 6-8" of medium density settled powder. Above tree line, and in exposed areas, the snow surface has been wind affected. Overnight, southwest ridge top winds picked up into the 20-30 mph range for a few hours, but they've backed off this morning into the teens. It's currently 8 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Mark Sevenoff sent in this observation from his travels yesterday. For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')

Nothing but blue sky! Yesterday was gorgeous with a fresh coat of fairly dense new snow plastered to the mountains. The new snow has covered up many formerly wind stripped, rocky slopes such as this west face on Mount Mellenthin. This shot was taken right above tree line. Note the wind affected snow surface. Best bet will be to drop back down. (Mark Sevenoff photo)
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Today your main concern continues to be wind slabs old and new, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Slabs formed during the storm will be less sensitive, but more recent drifts will have formed from the winds last night. N-E-NE facing slopes will be the most suspect, but cross loading is a factor on all aspects above tree line. Avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow, and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Our snowpack still contains a few weak layers. With the added new snow, and the additional weight of a rider, it may be possible to trigger an avalanche on one of them. Though not widespread, you are most likely to encounter this problem on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees, right around tree line and above, that face NW-E-SE. Prudent riders will dig a snow pit and perform stability tests before jumping into this terrain.

This Dave Garcia photo illustrates a weak layer of concern. Taken on Wednesday, up to 10" of new snow, or more if drifted, sits on top of the old snow surface.

weather

Today will be cold and dry with increasing clouds by this afternoon. An active pattern is setting up for next week with the first round of moisture moving in on Sunday.

Today

A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -10. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 15. West southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday

Snow. High near 30. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
general announcements

Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road yesterday. Thanks guys!

Grooming: Matt rolled out the lower meadow and into Gold Basin yesterday. He and Travis are going up today and will fine groom the entire track.

If you are getting out into the mountains, we love to hear from you! You can SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS ONLINE

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Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you shop from Backcountry.com or REI: Click this link for Backcountry.com or this link to REI, shop, and they will donate a percent of your purchase price to the UAC. Both offer free shipping (with some conditions) so this costs you nothing!

Benefit the Utah Avalanche Center when you buy or sell on ebay - set the Utah Avalanche Center as a favorite non-profit in your ebay account here and click on ebay gives when you buy or sell. You can choose to have your seller fees donated to the UAC, which doesn't cost you a penny.

The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.