Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Wednesday - January 4, 2017 - 6:59am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE this morning but could rise to CONSIDERABLE today as strong westerly winds, and accumulating new snow combine to create dangerous avalanche conditions on steep, wind loaded slopes right around tree line and above, that face NW-NE-SE. Be alert to rapidly changing conditions. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.




current conditions

Snow has begun to fall and Gold Basin is reporting 3" of new snow this morning with a possible 4-8" on the way today. Southwesterly winds have continued their assault, blowing in the 20-30 mph range with gusts near 40 along ridge tops. Temperature at 10,000' is 20 degrees. South facing aspects have been stripped of snow and the surface above tree line is beginning to look like a moonscape. Let's hope we get a significant refresh out of this!

For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity

This skier triggered avalanche occurred on Monday. Expect today's wind slabs to be deeper and more widespread.. For more details go here.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Today you will need to be on the lookout for newly formed wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that faces NW-NE-SE. Additionally, moderate to strong southwest winds over the past week have been steadily transporting snow to form stiff, shallow wind slabs in these same areas. These older, harder wind slabs will start to get covered up by new snow making them harder to detect today.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Recent snowpits have shown an overall stabilization and strengthening of the snowpack, and ​I don't expect the new snow to have much of an effect on buried weak layers. The exception might be weak sugary snow developing just below the old snow surface. As long as weak layers are present, it's still advisable to perform your own snowpack analysis before jumping in to any steep, north facing terrain, and the new snow alone should be enough to keep you out of those areas for a few days,

weather

Today

Snow. Widespread blowing snow. High near 22. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 16. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 9am. High near 20. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow before 11pm. Low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -10. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
general announcements

Road Conditions: Grand County got up and widened the road yesterday ahead of the next storm. Thanks guys!

Grooming: Just ahead of the new snow, groomers got out yesterday and set corduroy with the Ginzu into Gold Basin and up to Geyser Pass. The upper and lower meadow loops have been rolled out.

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.