Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - January 2, 2017 - 6:33am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper-mid to upper elevation terrain that has a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas where there are deposits of wind drifted snow. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges and beneath rocky outcrops. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
current conditions


Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, and southerly winds are blowing in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops. It's 20 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and 10 on Pre Laurel Peak. Wind and sun exposed slopes have taken a hit, especially above tree line. Soft, settled powder can still be found on sheltered, shady aspects.

Base depth in Gold Basin is 45" and the season total is 108" for 169% of normal.

For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With wind and blowing snow in the forecast today you will want to be on the lookout for newly forming shallow wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on NW-NE-E aspects. It may also still be possible to trigger an old, hard wind slab. Likely areas to find wind slabs new and old are on the leeward side of ridge crests and terrain features or beneath rock buttresses. Suspect smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and avoid steep slopes that have a "fat" appearance.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Snowpits reveal an overall stabilization and strengthening of the snowpack. Weak layers on northerly aspects, though still present, are no longer reactive under stability tests, and a facet/crust weak layer that was very reactive on southerly aspects last week has broken down. This is good news, but with the continued presence of weak layers, I would still perform a stability analysis before jumping on to any steep slope with a NW-NE-E aspect. For a full report and snowpit profile go here.

weather

An unsettled weather pattern is in store for most of the week but it doesn't look like any of the systems are going to be big snow producers.

Monday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly between 9pm and 1am. Areas of blowing snow between 9pm and 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy, with a west southwest wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24.

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Areas of blowing snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

Friday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 22.