Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 1, 2017 - 6:57am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper-mid to upper elevation terrain that has a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas where there are deposits of wind drifted snow. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges and beneath rocky outcrops. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
current conditions


Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, and southerly winds have been on the increase since about midnight. They are currently blowing in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops. It's 22 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and 13 on Pre Laurel Peak. Wind and sun exposed slopes have sustained some damage, especially above tree line. Soft, settled powder can still be found on sheltered, shady aspects.

Base depth in Gold Basin is 45" and the season total is 108" for 169% of normal.

For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. (9600')
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With wind and blowing snow in the forecast today you will want to be on the lookout for newly forming shallow wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on NW-NE-E aspects. It may also still be possible to trigger an old, hard wind slab. Likely areas to find wind slabs new and old are on the leeward side of ridge crests and terrain features or beneath rock buttresses. Suspect smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and avoid steep slopes that have a "fat" appearance.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Snowpits reveal an overall stabilization and strengthening of the snowpack. Weak layers on northerly aspects, though still present, are no longer reactive under stability tests, and a facet/crust weak layer that was very reactive on southerly aspects last week has broken down. This is good news, but with the continued presence of weak layers, I would still perform a stability analysis before jumping on to any steep slope with a NW-NE-E aspect. For a full report and snowpit profile go here.

weather

A series of fast moving Pacific storm systems will begin to affect our area later today, with an unsettled pattern continuing for most of the week.

New Year's Day

Snow likely, mainly after 9am. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday

Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.