Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - December 27, 2016 - 6:51am
bottom line

Overall the avalanche danger is MODERATE, but areas of CONSIDERABLE​ danger remain on steep upper elevation slopes that face N-NE-E. Backcountry travelers need to maintain heightened avalanche awareness. Avoid steep, wind drifted terrain, and continue to carefully evaluate any slope steeper than about 30 degrees.




special announcement

Grand County will be plowing the road today. If you try to beat the plows up, travel above the Trans La Sal Trailhead is not recommended. Expect to find the gate closed for plowing by around 9. Plowing could take up to 4 hours today.

current conditions

The mountains received 8" -15" of snow from the Christmas storm depending on elevation, and good powder conditions can still be had. Winds over the weekend were strong and erratic but by late Sunday had backed off to non-existent. The new snow is settling out but reports of collapsing and whumphing were still coming in on Monday. We are entering the down side of the curve as we slide from considerable danger to moderate, but this is where most avalanche accidents happen and it's still very much heads up out there.

Dave Garcia was out and about on Monday and sent in this observation. For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.(9600')

recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With plenty of snow available for transport, an increase in wind will begin to move snow around forming fresh drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Additionally, strong, gusty winds on Saturday formed stiff wind slabs on all aspects in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. New snow on Sunday covered them up making them harder to detect. If triggered, wind slabs have the potential to step down into buried weak layers causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. Watch your slope angles and avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees in upper elevation terrain on all aspects.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The snow pack structure is complex and poor in many areas, and collapsing and whumphing continue to communicate instability. Newly deposited wind slabs have added additional stress and increased the likelihood for triggering a deep, persistent slab avalanche. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that face N-NE-E, but weak layers exist on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. Best bet is to keep your slope angle to around 30 degrees and avoid slopes that appear to be drifted.

weather

Today

Sunny, with a high near 25. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 15. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 26. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 15. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 28. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 16.

Friday

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.