Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - December 26, 2016 - 5:20am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE​ today on steep, upper elevation terrain where blustery winds and blowing snow over the weekend created newly deposited wind slabs. The danger is also CONSIDERABLE on upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-SE where human triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely. For MODERATE danger, stick to lower and mid elevation sheltered terrain.




special announcement

The road to Geyser Pass has not been plowed since the storm cycle began on Friday and access to the mountains has grown increasingly difficult. Grand County will likely be digging out today after the snowy Christmas weekend and the Geyser Pass Road will be closed while plowing is in progress.

current conditions

Total snow data for the last 24 hours is difficult to interpret due to some erratic readings on the Gold Basin snow stake. Best estimate for Gold Basin is 12-15" while Geyser Pass Trailhead is reporting 6". Winds hammered from all directions on Saturday, blowing in the 20-40 mph range. Remarkably, they have been almost non-existent for the last 24 hours. It's a frigid -3 on Pre Laurel Peak and 9 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

For a full list of recent observations go here.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.(9600')

recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Strong, gusty winds on Saturday formed wind slabs on all aspects in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. These slabs will be stubborn to release today, and new snow has covered them up making them harder to detect. Suspect smooth, rounded, pillowy looking areas on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. If triggered, wind slabs have the potential to step down into buried weak layers causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. Watch your slope angles and avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees in upper elevation terrain on all aspects.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The snow pack structure is complex and poor in many areas, and snow pits dug on Friday showed that even southerly aspects are not immune. Collapsing and whumphing of the snow pack also continue to communicate instability. Newly deposited wind slabs have added additional stress and increased the likelihood for triggering a deep, persistent slab avalanche. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW-NE-SE, but mid elevation slopes are not immune. Best bet is to keep your slope angle to around 30 degrees or less in these areas, and avoid slopes that appear to be drifted.

weather

Things are going to dry out with gradually warming temperatures over the next several days with the next chance for snow looming out there around Friday.

Monday

A 10 percent chance of snow before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind around 15 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 9. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 25. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 14. West southwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 25.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 13.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 25.