Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - December 9, 2016 - 6:50am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW. Areas of unstable snow may exist on isolated terrain features, particularly in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Continue to practice safe travel techniques and evaluate suspect terrain for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.




special announcement

I'll be presenting a free Know Before You go avalanche awareness talk next Thursday, December 15, at the Grand County Library at 6:00 p.m. The presentation includes an exciting and educational video produced by the Utah Avalanche Center that has been chosen as an official selection in the Banff Mountain Film Festival. Following will be a powerpoint presentation, and a question and answer session on staying safe in the winter backcountry.Hope to see you there!

current conditions

The glory days of last weekend have come and gone and wind, sun, and cold clear nights have begun to erode our shallow early, season snowpack. That's not to say that it's all over but you'll need to stick to the trees and sheltered areas to find soft powder snow. The base is still mostly supportable, but it's thin, and weeds, rocks and deadfall are becoming more apparent.

So far, the powerful storm system churning to the north hasn't even brought us much anticipated high winds. Yesterday ridge top winds averaged 10-15 mph from the WSW, with gusts as high as 30 mph. This morning they shifted to the NW, and are blowing in the 10-15 mph range. It's a balmy 27 degrees this morning at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, and 17 on Pre Laurel Peak.

Storm totals and temperature in Gold Basin.(10,000')

Wind, temperature and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak.(11,700')

Snow totals, temperature and snow/water equivalent at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.(9600')

It's starting to look pretty thin out there with plenty of weeds sticking out and exposed rocks on the peaks.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is generally low this morning. Areas of unstable snow may exist on isolated terrain features, particularly in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Continue to practice safe travel techniques and evaluate suspect terrain for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.

weather

An active storm pattern is setting up with the current energy tracking to the north. A second system will bring us a shot at some snow Saturday night into Sunday. The pattern continues into next week.

Today

A 20 percent chance of snow before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 20. Windy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

general announcements

The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed and clear but slick.

Grooming of cross country trails has commenced for the season. Matt and Travis got the Ginzu groomer out yesterday and marked off the trails into Gold Basin.