Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Wednesday - March 23, 2016 - 6:42am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain where recent deposits of wind drifted snow pose the greatest threat. These new drifts should be fairly manageable, and recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. Venturing into steep, radical, and more committing terrain will significantly raise the consequences for triggering a new wind slab, or possibly a deeper persistent slab.

Out of the wind affected terrain, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.




special announcement

This advisory is based on field observations performed on Sunday, March 20 and will be updated next on Wednesday, March 23.

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current conditions

Snowfall began around 7:00 p.m. last night and tapered off around midnight. The mountains picked up 5-6" of new snow at .60" of water during that period. Ridgetop winds yesterday blew in the 25-40 mph range from the SW, but they shifted to NW during the period of precipitiation, and have been blowing in the 15-20 mph range ever since. Conditions wil be improved today, but a variety of hard snow surfaces are lurking underneath.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

recent activity


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Winds haven't been too out of hand, but they are definitely blowing enough to form sensitive wind slabs on the lee sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface, and avoid steep slopes with smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

I don't think this new snow will be enough to activate any serious persistent slab problems, but a triggered wind slab in the new snow may have the potential to step down into sugary, faceted snow in areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Repeat running slide paths are suspect, as are areas of more steep and radical, NE facing terrain.

weather

Today

Scattered snow showers, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight

Isolated snow showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 38. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after noon. Some thunder is also possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Saturday

Snow showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of snow showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 40.

general announcements

Road Conditions: Expect to find  a few inches of new snow on the road today.

To post an observation go here.  You can view Moab observations here. You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.