Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - February 15, 2016 - 7:06am
bottom line

A MODERATE or isolated avalanche danger remains on steep slopes in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, primarily on slopes with a N-E-S aspect. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
current conditions

Temperatures this morning are the coldest they've been in awhile. It is currently 27 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and a seasonable 17 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak. Northwesterly winds yesterday blew in the 20-30 mph range along ridge tops, backing off this morning to around 15-20 mph. The snow surface continues to be a mixed bag of mostly wind and sun crusts. Scattered pockets of corn-like snow can be found on sheltered, mid elevation southerly aspects, and if you are a diligent seeker you can still find some dry, re-crystallized powder on sheltered, north facing slopes.

Where did all the snow go? View north from the summit of Haystack Mountain.


Southeast side of Haystack Mountain. Wind damaged snow exists on all aspects which is hindering the corn snow process. You have to seek out very sheltered areas to find smooth snow.


Looking down the north face of Haystack Mountain. Northwest winds have scoured out the upper elevations.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead
recent activity

I received this report of a snowboard triggered, shallow, hard wind slab near Colorado Bowl that occurred on Saturday. The avalanche was triggered on a north facing aspect around 11,000' in wind exposed terrain. These types of wind slabs can be difficult to detect as they are often wind etched on the surface and they lay scattered behind subtle terrain features in otherwise wind scoured terrain.


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

You wouldn't think there was any snow left available for transport out there, but the northwest winds over the past few days have been able to move some snow around depositing it in strange and hard to detect places. A few old, hard slabs also remain. Though mostly shallow and isolated to specific terrain features, you will need to be alert if you are out cruising around in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Disguised by wind etching, slabs may not display the usual smooth, rounded characteristics, and the biggest clue will be areas of snow that feel hollow and sound like a drum as you stomp on them. These slabs are not likely deep enough to bury someone but if triggered, they could easily sweep you off your feet and take you for a ride. Be alert to consequences such as cliffs, rocks, or trees below.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

In general, the danger for triggering a persistent slab, or deep persistent slab is growing increasingly unlikely and north facing aspects are mostly stable. Areas where you may still encounter a problem are on steep, northerly facing aspects where the snow is shallow, or in areas of extreme rocky terrain.

weather

Washington's Birthday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. South southwest wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy.

Thursday

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy.

Thursday Night

A chance of snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow after 11pm. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Windy.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.
general announcements

Road Conditions: The road is plowed but getting sloppy and muddy.

Grooming: The trails were groomed Friday.

This is a single-person operation and I can't be everywhere at once.  You can contribute to your own, community avalanche forecast by letting me know what you're finding.  You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.  You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.