Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - February 14, 2016 - 6:49am
bottom line

With daytime heating today the avalanche danger may rise to MODERATE on sunny aspects. If the snow starts to feel wet, sloppy, or punchy, it is time to get off of and stay out from under steep, sun exposed slopes.

A very isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab still remains on steep, northerly facing aspects in areas of shallow snowpack, or in extreme rocky terrain.

Elsewhere the avalanche danger is generally LOW.




current conditions

We had a good solid freeze last night and the temperature is currently 27 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Overnight winds have been in the 20-30 mph range from the northwest. The snow surface continues to be a mixed bag of mostly wind and sun crusts that turn to glop as the day progresses. Scattered pockets of corn snow can be found on sheltered, mid elevation southerly aspects, and if you are a diligent seeker you can still find some dry, re-crystallized powder on sheltered, north facing slopes.

Where did all the snow go? View north from the summit of Haystack Mountain.


Southeast side of Haystack Mountain. Wind damaged snow exists on all aspects which is hindering the corn snow process. You have to seek out very sheltered areas to find smooth snow.


Looking down the north face of Haystack Mountain. Northwest winds have scoured out the upper elevations.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

recent activity

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

With a good solid freeze last night and cooler temperatures on tap for today, I expect the danger for loose, wet avalanches to be very minimal. But as daytime heating affects the snow surface, stay alert for signs of wet snow instabilty such as sloppy, wet, or punchy snow, rollerballs, or pinwheels coming down the slope. If theses signs are present it is time to get off of and stay out from under steep, sun exposed slopes.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

In general, the danger for triggering a persistent slab, or deep persistent slab is growing increasingly unlikely and north facing aspects are mostly stable. Areas where you may still encounter a problem are on steep, northerly facing aspects where the snow is shallow, or in areas of extreme rocky terrain.

weather

A storm system will move through the region well north of our area leaving us with only residual blustery conditions. A chance at some snow develops by mid week.

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Washington's Birthday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night

A slight chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy.

Thursday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Windy.

general announcements

Road Conditions: The road is plowed but getting sloppy and muddy.

Grooming: The trails were groomed Friday.

This is a single-person operation and I can't be everywhere at once.  You can contribute to your own, community avalanche forecast by letting me know what you're finding.  You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.  You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.