Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - February 13, 2016 - 6:32am
bottom line

With daytime heating today the avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE on sunny aspects. If the snow starts to feel wet, sloppy, or punchy, it is time to get off of and stay out from under steep, sun exposed slopes.

A very isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab still remains on steep, northerly facing aspects in areas of shallow snowpack, or in extreme rocky terrain.

Elsewhere the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
current conditions

It's been feeling more like April in the mountains than February and I wish someone would crank down the heat! The snow surface is a pretty extreme mix of wind scour, melt freeze crusts, and heavy, wet glop. Our hunt for corn snow yesterday turned up with varying results and we found it only on smooth, well protected southerly aspects at mid elevations. Getting it early is key, as warming is occurring very rapidly. Some chalky, re-crystallized "powder" can be found on sheltered, upper elevation northerly aspects.

Above about 10,000' we continue to have regular overnight freezes and it is currently 29 on Pre Laurel Peak and 31 in Gold Basin. At the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') however, it is a balmy 36 degrees this morning. Overnight winds have been on the increase, and they are currently averaging 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 from the southwest.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The frozen snow surface will quickly thaw today and you will need to be alert to a rising danger for wetslide activity. If the snow starts feeling punchy, sloppy, or you notice signs of instability such as roller balls or pinwheels, it is time to get off of and stay out from under steep slopes.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

In general, the danger for triggering a persistent slab, or deep persistent slab is growing increasingly unlikely and north facing aspects are mostly stable. Areas where you may still encounter a problem are on steep, northerly facing aspects where the snow is shallow, or in areas of extreme rocky terrain.

weather

A couple of weak disturbances to the north will bring a few clouds and increased winds to our area today.

Today

Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Washington's Birthday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northwest wind around 15 mph.
general announcements

Road Conditions: The road is plowed but getting sloppy and muddy.

Grooming: The trails were groomed Friday.

This is a single-person operation and I can't be everywhere at once.  You can contribute to your own, community avalanche forecast by letting me know what you're finding.  You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.  You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.