Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - January 5, 2016 - 6:23am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE on mid and upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E where the possibility exists for triggering a deep, persistent slab avalanche. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering a recently deposited wind slab in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.




special announcement

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be hosting an Avalanche 101 class on January 15,16. This course is generously sponsored by Moab Gear Trader and will consist of an evening classroom session and a day out in the field. This course will cover avalanche characteristics and snowpack fundamentals, clues to instability, assessment of avalanche terrain, route finding and companion rescue. For more information, see the link below or contact me at [email protected].

https://utahavalanchecenter.org/classes/moab-backcountry-101
current conditions

Light snow is falling and the Gold Basin study plot is reporting just under 3" of new snow this morning. Southeast winds blew most of the day yesterday in the 20-30 mph range. Around 4:00 a.m. they dropped off and shifted to the southwest and area currently averaging in the single digits with gusting into the teens. Temperatures at 10,000' are in the mid 20's.

Reed Kennard was out and about yesterday and posted this observation. Generally speaking, it was a blustery, transitional day with lots of snow blowing around and variable snow surfaces.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 60"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead
recent activity

Over the weekend I went around to the east side of the range and got a good picture as to how widespread the avalanche cycle of Dec 25-26 was. The 15-20" of snow on Christmas, combined with 30-60 mph NE winds the day after, produced numerous large avalanches though many slopes stayed put. The slopes that didn't avalanche are still cause for concern. Some slides broke on basal facets to the ground, whereas others failed on a mid-level, weak faceted layer. Most of the slides occurred on northerly aspects but there were exceptions. Check out this photo of a large avalanche on the south face of Mount Tomasaki submitted by Ken Williams. The crown at the top is over 6' deep and adjacent to a scoured surface.


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Persistent slab problems vary and avalanches are becoming harder to trigger. Nevertheless, consequences remain high. In areas with weak, shallow snow, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche to the ground. This scenario is most likely in rocky, and radical terrain right around treeline, or in areas where starting zones have been repeatedly scoured out. In areas where the snowpack is deeper, a mid level facet layer is the more likely weakness. Continue to suspect slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E that didn't run in the last cycle. Careful slope evaluation and determining whether or not a weak layer is present is essential before venturing into this terrain.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Shallow wind slabs were formed by yesterday's strong southeasterly wind. Be on the lookout for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in wind exposed terrain. Cross loading will be a factor, and slabs will likely be isolated and spotty. With more snow and wind in the forecast, this danger will likely increase over the next few days.
weather

A solid El Nino pattern will send several fast moving storm systems across the southwest and intermountain regions through the upcoming week. The system currently affecting our area will move eastward by this evening leaving us with maybe a couple more inches of snow. By Wednesday, a stronger wave will spread further north across our area bringing a chance for more significant snow totals. Thursday through Sunday show a continuation of moisture streaming through the area.

Tuesday

Snow. High near 19. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow. Low around 13. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. High near 19. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow. Low around 9. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 15.
general announcements

Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but narrow.

Grooming: Matt and Travis groomed Gold Basin and packed out over Geyser Pass this weekend.

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.