Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - January 4, 2016 - 6:10am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE on mid and upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E where the possibility exists for triggering a deep, persistent slab avalanche. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering a recently deposited wind slab in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.




current conditions

The run of amazing conditions has come to a close. Settled powder can still be found in sheltered areas but wind, sun, and warmer temperatures over the weekend have finally taken a toll on the snow surface in exposed locations. But have no fear, the reset button is about to be pushed as a series of storm systems are lined up to affect our area through the week.

A few clouds are hanging over the mountains this morning and expect more to stream in through the day. East-southeast winds picked up around midnight last night and are currently averaging 25 mph and gusting into the mid 30's. It's a balmy 31 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and 18 on Pre Laurel Peak.

Thanks to everyone who sent in these observations over the weekend.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 62"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead



recent activity

There hasn't been any new activity since the Dec 25, 26 storm and wind event, but over the weekend, I went around to the east side of the range and got a good picture as to how widespread the avalanche cycle was. I found evidence of numerous large avalanches, primarily on NE-E aspects with some failing at the ground, and others failing at a mid level faceted layer. Though slides were numerous, the carnage wasn't what I would call wall to wall, and many paths stayed in place. These areas remain a concern.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Persistent slab problems vary and avalanches are becoming harder to trigger. Nevertheless, consequences remain high. In areas with weak, shallow snow, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche to the ground. This scenario is most likely in rocky, and radical terrain right around treeline, or in areas where starting zones have been repeatedly scoured out. In areas where the snowpack is deeper, a mid level facet layer is the more likely weakness. Continue to suspect slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E that didn't run in the last cycle. Careful slope evaluation and determining whether or not a weak layer is present is essential before venturing into this terrain.

This buried faceted layer was responsible for the slides in Corksrew Glades.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

I expect that the ESE winds overnight will have built shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Today, winds will shift more to the south, and at 20-25 mph, will continue to blow snow around. Cross loading will be a factor, and slabs will likely be isolated and spotty. Be on the lookout for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Though not deep, a triggered wind slab could knock you off your feet or take you for a ride over a cliff. With more snow and wind in the forecast, this danger will likely increase over the next few days.

weather

A solid El Nino pattern will send several fast moving storm systems across the southwest and intermountain regions through the upcoming week. The first system is tracking to the south and will brush by our area tonight. 3-7" of snow are possible through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a second trough will spread further north across our area bringing a chance for more significant snow totals. Thursday through Sunday show a continuation of moisture streaming through the area.

Today

50 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 13. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday

Snow. High near 20. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night

Snow. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

general announcements

Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but narrow.

Grooming: Matt and Travis groomed Gold Basin and packed out over Geyser Pass this weekend.

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.