Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - January 2, 2016 - 6:12am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains MODERATE on mid and upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E, with the greatest danger on NE aspects. Though difficult to trigger, an avalanche triggered in these areas would be deep and dangerous. Careful slope and snowpack evaluation is necessary before venturing into this kind of terrain. There are plenty of good riding options on lower angle slopes.




current conditions

Conditions remain about as good as it gets out there. 8-10" of light powder snow fell on Wednesday, and since then winds have remained remarkably calm.They've swung to the southwest this morning and are averaging 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Temperatures are quite a bit warmer this morning but are still inverted. It's 17 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak, and 12 at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead
recent activity

No new avalanche activity has been observed since last weekend but if you haven't been following the report, it's worth noting these slides from last weekend that ran on persistent weak layers with one running full depth to the ground. On Thursday, my partners and I headed over to the Corkscrew Glades to check out these slides observed by Ed Grote earlier in the week.

Snow from the Christmas storm, and the wind event of Dec 26, produced natural avalanche activity on all aspects. Slides on slopes facing W-S-SE were pockety in nature, and consisted of newly deposited wind slabs averaging 2- 3' deep. More significant slides occurred on north and east facing aspects including a full depth release more than 6' deep on the east face of Tukno. For a complete list of observed avalanches go here.

East face of Tukno. Slide on left ran full depth to the ground whereas slide on the right ran down to a mid level persistent weakness.

View shows two other slides in Gold Basin. Only Gravel Pit Lanes ran full depth.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Persistent slab problems vary, and avalanches are becoming harder to trigger, but the consequences remain high. It is possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche to the ground though it is more likely that one would be triggered on a mid-level faceted layer. The danger exists on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face W-N-E with the highest danger on NE aspects. Careful slope evaluation and determining whether or not a weak layer is present is essential before venturing into this terrain.

This buried faceted layer was responsible for the slides in Corksrew Glades.

weather

A short lived ridge will build over the region for the next 48 hours ushering in slightly warmer temperatures. By Monday, the first in a series of troughs moves into the area bringing yet another week of moist, unstable weather with the first shot at significant snow coming on Wednesday.

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 17. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming south southeast in the evening.

Monday

A 10 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
general announcements

Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead was plowed before Wednesday's snowfall, but many vehicles have made it up over the past several days. Expect a mostly packed snow surface with narrow, one lane passage in some spots.

Grooming: Matt and Travis groomed Gold Basin yesterday and packed out over Geyser Pass.

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.