Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - November 26, 2015 - 7:32am
bottom line

There is an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering a newly deposited, stiff wind slab, primarily in steep, north facing terrain underneath cliff bands or on the lees sides of terrain features well below ridge crests. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab on slopes steeper than 35 degrees with a NW-N-E aspect. This danger is most likely in areas of rocky and more radical terrain, where a stiff slab overlies underlying weak layers. Elsewhere the avalanche danger is generally LOW.




current conditions

There are lot's of things to be thankful for today even if this "storm" isn't one of them. We got wind out of this, enough so that it blew the propeller off the weather vane on Pre Laurel Peak. Winds yesterday blew in the 30-40 mph range with much higher gusts, and they switched around from S-SE-NE alternately scouring and depositing snow. In general, the snow surface is pretty worked over from the effects of wind, sun and warm temperatures. Settled powder conditions can still be found in sheltered areas but remember that it is still a shallow, early season snow pack and many obstacles such as stumps, rocks, and dead fall lurk beneath the surface.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 29"

Base depth at Geyser Pass Trailhead: 19"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

Wind anyone?


recent activity

Yesterday I did notice a few small, shallow, natural wind slab releases from under the rocks in the upper cirques off Gold Basin.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Stiff, shallow, isolated wind slabs exist in exposed locations on the lee sides of terrain features. Difficult to trigger or even crack out, most are quite small and won't pose much of a problem. Areas of greater concern are on upper elevation, northerly aspects, down slope, well below the ridge crest,s and beneath rock bands where eddying wind currents have allowed more snow to be deposited.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The danger for persistent slab avalanches is more a future concern at this time due to the development of persistent weak layers in the snowpack and the game now is to wait for a new snow load. Nevertheless, snow from the Nov. 10-11 storm, has consolidated into a cohesive layer on top of these weak layers, and it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on slopes steeper than 35 degrees with a northerly aspect.

weather

Thanksgiving Day

A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of snow after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south in the morning.

Friday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the evening.

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Sunday

A 10 percent chance of snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

general announcements

The Road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but with patches of mud,  ice and packed snow. 

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.