Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - March 2, 2015 - 6:34am
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Today there is a HIGH avalanche danger in the mountains of Southeastern Utah which means that both natural and human triggered avalanches are probable. Back country travelers are urged to use extreme caution by choosing only the most conservative routes and avoiding all avalanche terrain.




avalanche warning

I am issuing an Avalanche Warning for the mountains of Southeastern Utah. Strong winds and accumulating snow over the next 24 hours will make for dangerous avalanche conditions in which natural and human triggered avalanches are likely. Back country travelers are advised to use extreme caution and avoid avalanche terrain. 
current conditions

La Sal Mountains

Another 5" of snow has fallen in Gold Basin overnight bringing us up to 15" since Thursday and another 5-9" is in the forecast. SW winds have been howling overnight averaging 40 mph with gusts to 70. Temperatures have been steadily warming over the past 24 hours and it is currently 22 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Today is going to be severe out there with strong gusty winds and areas of deep drifted snow.

La Sal Mountains Current Weather

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains

The Abajos picked up another 4" overnight bringing weekend storm totals up to 10" but snow cover in the range is still very thin. "Spatial variability" is the key term. This means you can find snow up to four feet deep on on a sheltered, northerly aspect while a more exposed, adjacent slope will still be showing rocks and grass.

Abajo / Blue Mountains Current Weather

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With 15" or more snow available for transport and strong southwesterly winds, new wind slab formation will be rampant today. Signs should be obvious. Wind transported snow will be accumulating in deep drifts, and cracking in the snow surface and collapsing of the snowpack will all be indicators of instability. A new wind slab triggered will also have the potential to step down into weaker buried layers creating a much larger and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. Today will be a day to stay off of and out from under slopes of about 30 degrees in steepness.


Accumulated snow over the past 10 days sheered off of buried facets that developed on the old snow surface during the February high pressure. Expect this layer to be reactive today with the potential for slides to step down into deeper weak layers.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Several weak layers exist in the snow pack, and this new round of snow, and especially wind transported snow, will provide enough of a load to re-awaken the potential for deep and dangerous, persistent slab avalanches. This danger is most prevalent right around, and just above tree line on steep rocky slopes that face the north half of the compass.


Snow pit illustrates buried weak layers within the snowpack.
weather

Today look for snow and blowing snow with accumulations in the 5-9" range. Winds will average 30-35 mph from the SW with much higher gusts. High temperatures at 10,000 will be around 30 degrees. Snow will continue tonight and into Tuesday, with another foot possible.
general announcements

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.