Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - February 24, 2015 - 6:38am
bottom line

In the Abajo Mountains there is a MODERATE danger for triggering recently formed wind slabs, on slopes steeper than 35 degrees primarily in wind exposed, upper elevation terrain. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering a buried persistent slab on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect. In the La Sal Mountains there is a MODERATE danger for triggering recently deposited shallow wind slabs, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. There will also be a MODERATE danger for loose wet slide activity in both ranges as daytime heating affects sun exposed slopes.




current conditions

La Sal Mountains

In spite of impressive storm totals throughout the region, the La Sals only received 4" - 6" of new snow over the course of the last storm. Things have freshened up a bit though in most areas you can still feel a hard,underlying surface. Sheltered, northerly aspects where the snow has drifted in provide the softest turning conditions. Ridge top winds overnight have shifted to the NE and are blowing in the 15 -20 mph range. It is 13 degrees on Pre Laurel Peak and 20 at the Geyser Pass trailhead.

La Sal Mountains Current Weather

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains

The Abajo's faired much better in this storm picking up 15" of much needed snow at Camp Jackson and 10" at Buckboard Flat. Snow conditions have been extremely low in the Abajos this season and most sun exposed aspects were melted down to the ground prior to this storm. Best riding and turning conditions will be found on upper elevation shadier aspects though this is where you will also find the greatest avalanche danger. Keep this in mind as you venture out in search of good snow , and beware of recently buried obstacles such as rocks and stumps just below the surface. Winds on Abajo Peak have been remarkably well behaved overnight blowing in the single digits from the NE and it is currently 14 degrees up there.

Abajo / Blue Mountains Current Weather

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.


recent activity



Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

La Sal Mountains

In my travels yesterday I found recently deposited, isolated wind slabs up to a foot deep above tree line on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. They were mostly benign but Increasing winds today will move more snow around making them a little more potent, particularly in areas of steeper, more radical terrain where the consequences of a ride could be more sever. Be alert to increasing signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface and suspect smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.

Abajo / Blue Mountains

Winds in the Abajos have been mostly calm overnight but wind slabs up to 2' deep that developed during the storm will still be a concern today. And with lots of new snow available for transport, an increase in winds will translate to an increase in danger. Pay attention to signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing in the snow pack, and beware of smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

In the Abajo Mountains, the new snow has fallen on a very weak and shallow snow pack. A rider triggering an avalanche in the new snow risks the potential of having a slide step down into buried weak layers creating a much larger and more dangerous avalanche. This danger is most prevalent on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

With as strong sun getting higher in the sky, and lots of loose new snow around, expect to see loose wet slides on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up.

weather

Today look for mostly sunny skies with high temperatures at 10,000' getting up to around 30 degrees. NE winds will average 15 mph along ridge tops. Wednesday also looks to be sunny. A wave of unsettled weather will begin to move clouds into the region on Thursday with what looks to be another shot at a significant storm developing by the weekend.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. Blustery, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.

general announcements

Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the Loop Road yesterday and numerous vehicles packed in the road to the Geyser Pass trailhead. You may encounter plows on the Geyser Pass Road this morning.

Grooming Conditions: Trails were not groomed yesterday.

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.