Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - February 21, 2015 - 7:13am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW today. Expect the danger to rise dramatically over the next few days as a powerful storm moves into our area on Sunday.




current conditions

If all goes well, today should signify our slide back into winter with what looks to be a significant storm system on our doorstep. Thin clouds over our area this morning will alternate with periods of sunshine. A chance of snow develops by afternoon with a promise for real snow on Sunday into Monday. Conditions today will be kind of rugged consisting of mostly frozen melt-freeze surfaces and wind crusts. Occasional pockets of soft, powder-like snow can still be found in extremely sheltered areas.

Overnight lows dropped into the very wintry single digits on Pre Laurel Peak, and ridge top winds have been averaging 20-25 mph from the WSW. It is currently 21 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.


La Sal Mountains Current Weather

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains.

Low snow conditions continue to plague the Abajo Mountains.

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.


recent activity



Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Conditions are currently mostly stable but the upcoming storm system could be a the game changer for our fragile snowpack. Expect a rising danger tomorrow with dangerous avalanche conditions developing by afternoon. If forecasted storm totals pan out we could see High avalanche danger by Monday both for newly deposited wind slabs and buried persistent slabs.

weather

A return to winter like conditions is on tap for the weekend with what looks to be a significant storm system moving into our area on Sunday into Monday bringing us up to a foot or more of much needed snow. Today, look for partly sunny skies with a chance of snow developing by late afternoon. WSW winds will average 15-20 mph along ridge tops, and high temperatures at 10,000' will be in the mid to upper 20's. By Sunday, the flow shifts to more southwesterly bringing us our first significant shot at snow with 4-8" possible.Snow should continue through Monday.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow showers. High near 24. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 14. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Monday: Snow. High near 28. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

general announcements


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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.