Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - January 26, 2015 - 6:58am
bottom line

Today the danger for wet slide activity will rise, possibly to CONSIDERABLE, on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up. Due to extremely warm temperatures, there will also be a MODERATE danger for wet slide activity on shady aspects at mid-lower elevations. There also remains a ​MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab on steep, upper elevation slopes with a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in rocky areas that have a thin, shallow snowpack.
current conditions

La Sal Mountains

It's been a warm night with no solid refreeze. Temperatures on Pre Laurel Peak barely dipped to freezing at about 4 a.m. and by 5 a.m. it was already 41 degrees at 10,000' in Gold Basin. Ridge top winds have been easterly in the teens with gusts of around 30 mph. It's a mixed bag of conditions out there and the snow surface is tired and worn.

Wind damaged snow in Gold Basin.


Thin cover and sun affected snow on southerly aspects above La Sal Pass.

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.

Abajo / Blue Mountains.

Low snow conditions prevail but soft snow can be found on sheltered terrain below tree line. In these areas the base depth ranges from 20-30" of snow. Sunnier aspects remain extremely shallow.

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Without a solid refreeze overnight, sunny skies and extremely warm temperatures forecasted for the mountains today, the danger for wet slide activity will be on the rise. Sun exposed slopes will be the most dangerous but wet sloppy snow will also be an issue on mid to lower elevation shady aspects. Pay attention to signs of instability such as wet point releases, roller balls or pinwheels, and of course wet slide activity. Today will be a day to stay off of and out from under steep slopes as things heat up.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Buried weak layers remain in the snowpack and we still can't let down our guard against the possibility of triggering a dangerous persistent slab. Rapid warming could also increase the likelihood for one of these weaknesses to fail. The danger for triggering a persistent slab exists on upper-mid to upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas of rocky terrain that have a thin shallow snowpack.
weather

Today will be a scorcher in the mountains with high temperatures at 10,000' of around 50 degrees. Easterly winds will be in the 10-20 mph range. The storm system forecasted to affect our area Tue-Wed is weakening and will likely bring us little more than clouds and continued warm temperatures.

general announcements


Road Conditions: The road is plowed and clear. 

Grooming Conditions: Trails are scheduled to be groomed on Monday and Friday. 

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. This advisory will be updated on Thursday, January 22.