Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 4, 2015 - 6:37am
bottom line

There is a MODERATE danger for triggering a stiff wind slab primarily on steep, upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that have deposits of wind drifted snow. There is also a "low probability-high consequence" MODERATE danger for triggering a deep persistent slab on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, primarily at upper mid to upper elevation terrain that has a NW-N-E aspect.
special announcement

This advisory has been created from field work performed on Saturday, January 3, and weather observations taken on Sunday, January 4. It is posted for general information purposes. Readers must use this information and other available weather data to form their own danger analysis for the upcoming week. The next advisory will be posted on Friday, January 9.

current conditions

We had a great run the last two weeks of December with up to 3' of snow falling in the La Sal Mountains. This has dramatically improved our base and given us something to stand on as the January thaw sets in. Over the past couple of days NW winds have picked up affecting powder conditions in exposed areas, and a strong sun on Friday put a crust on southerly aspects. Soft snow can still be found in sheltered areas. Base depth in Gold Basin is 39" and 27" at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Thanks to everyone who has been posting recent observations. You can post new observations here.

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals and temperature in Gold Basin.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Varying wind directions over the past week have deposited stiff wind slabs at upper elevations on nearly all aspects. Though not widespread, you can find them on the lee sides of ridges and terrain features. Cross loading has been a factor and in some areas you may find alternating pockets of wind scoured terrain next to adjacent deposits of wind drifted snow. Most of these slabs will be hard and stubborn to release but once triggered they could rapidly ruin your day.Be alert to smooth rounded pillows and areas of snow that have a hollow feel to them.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Over the past couple of weeks up to 3' of snow has fallen on top of persistent buried weaknesses in the snowpack. Though the snowpack has largely adjusted to this new load, it is still a delicate balance. We call this a low probability-high consequence situation where the odds of triggering a deep persistent slab are getting slimmer, but the consequences are such that the risk probably isn't worth it. Careful slope analysis is key for those who wish to venture into larger terrain. This danger is most prevalent at upper-mid to upper elevations on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect, particularly in areas of rocky terrain that have a thin snowpack.

weather

The January thaw is coming as a high pressure ridge develops over the west bringing mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures to our area through Friday. High temperatures at 10,000' will be in the mid 30's the first part of the week and reaching near 40 by Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20's. Winds will be from the WNW averaging 10-15 mph.
general announcements


Road Conditions: The road is plowed.

Grooming Conditions: It should be a great week for skating and classic cross country skiing. Trails were groomed on Saturday and are scheduled to be groomed again on Monday. 

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

EMAIL ADVISORY  If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you will need to subscribe here.​ 

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. This advisory will be updated on Saturday, January 3 or sooner if conditions warrant.