Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - December 27, 2014 - 6:57am
bottom line

There danger remains CONSIDERABLE for triggering a persistent slab on upper elevation terrain steeper than 35 degrees on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect.

There is a MODERATE danger for triggering a lingering wind slab on exposed, upper elevation terrain steeper than about 35 degrees.
current conditions

If you missed last weekend's sunny powder day you won't want to miss today. The Christmas storm laid down 10-14" of light density powder on top of the 5" that fell earlier in the week and skiing and riding conditions are about as good as you will find right now. The pack is still shallow in many areas however, and rocks, stumps, and fallen trees remain a hazard.

Winds since Christmas night have been negligible, mostly under 10 mph along ridge tops. Last night they made a brief jump into the low teens with gusts into the 20's out of the NW, but since 3 a.m. they have been dead calm.Temperatures are cold this morning, -5 on Pre Laurel Peak, and 0 a the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Total depth in Gold Basin is 42" and at Geyser Pass Trailhead the base is 29".

Mountain weather conditions at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

Snow totals at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals in Gold Basin.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

We have been adding straw to the camel's back so to speak, with each storm and wind event adding more stress to faceted weak layers buried in the snow pack. Though isolated, there is now considerable likelihood of triggering a persistent slab on one of these buried weak layers primarily at upper elevations on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have a NW-N-E aspect.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

A few lingering wind slabs formed earlier in the week may still be found in the wind zone at upper elevations. Keep an eye out for smooth, rounded pillows of recently deposited wind drifted snow.

weather

Today should see mostly sunny skies, light winds, and cold temperatures with a high of around 15 degrees at 10,000'. Clouds will begin to move in tonight ahead of the next series of storms. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with the best chance for a little snow coming Sunday night into Monday.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -15. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Breezy.

general announcements


Road Conditions: There was about 6" of fresh snow on the Geyser Pass Road yesterday. Plow crews didn't make it up but the road saw plenty of traffic. You will still need 4 x 4 to reach the parking lot however. 

Grooming Conditions: 8"-10" of new snow will be on top of the track today. Ed and Gerrish got the roller out on Wednesday and took it into Gold Basin and up to Geyser Pass. They also moved the trees off the road that blew down during Monday's wind event.

Observations: If you are out and about, I would love to know what you are seeing. Please post your observations here.

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.