Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - December 23, 2014 - 7:25am
bottom line

There danger is CONSIDERABLE today for triggering recently deposited wind slabs, primarily on upper elevation, wind exposed terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Be alert to smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and watch for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface or collapsing of the snowpack.

There is also a CONSIDERABLE today for triggering a recently buried persistent slab on upper elevation terrain steeper than 35 degrees on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect.




current conditions

It looks like we got a little surprise with both Gold Basin and the Geyser Pass Trailhead sensors registering 6" of new snow this morning. But with northerly winds blowing steady for the past 18 hours in the 25-30 mph range with gusts over 50, you will have to seek out sheltered terrain for good powder conditions. Expect clouds and flurries this morning with clearing skies throughout the day. High temps at 10,000' will be around 20 degrees.

Winds overnight on Pre Laurel Peak have been in the 25-35 mph range with gusts near 50. Today they will back off a bit to 15-25 mph with gusting into the 30's. It is a frigid 1 degree on Pre Laurel Peak and 10 degrees at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Mountain weather conditions at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

Snow totals at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals in Gold Basin.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With strong winds and plenty of snow available for transport new wind slabs will have developed in wind exposed areas. Avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees and look for signs of instability such as smooth pillows of recently drifted snow, cracking in the snow surface, or collapsing of the snow pack.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

New wind drifts will provide extra stress on buried persistent slabs. The November snow is turning to facets, or weak sugary snow, and we are now starting to get a load on top. In some cases, old stiff slabs overly these facets, and they are now covered by anywhere from 1-2' of new snow. There is also a very weak layer of mid pack faceting associated with a crust. The concern now is triggering a slide that will step down into one off these buried weaknesses. You are most likely to encounter this problem on slopes steeper then 35 degrees on upper elevation slopes with a NW-N-E aspect.
weather

A brief high pressure ridge will begin to build today. Clouds and scattered snow showers this morning will break into clear skies later today. NW winds will be in the 15-25 mph range and high temperatures at 10,000' will be around 20 degrees. Wednesday will be sunny and warmer with high temperatures at 10,000' near freezing. Clouds will move in Wednesday night ahead of the next storm system on Christmas day.

Today: A 20 percent chance of snow before 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 9. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 32. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Christmas Day: Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 17.
general announcements

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.