Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - December 22, 2014 - 7:15am
bottom line

There danger is CONSIDERABLE today for triggering recently deposited wind slabs, primarily on upper elevation, wind exposed terrain steeper than 35 degrees. Be alert to smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow, and watch for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface or collapsing of the snowpack.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today for triggering a recently buried persistent slab on upper elevation terrain steeper than 35 degrees on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect.




current conditions

The party is over so to speak. After enjoying powder and sunshine over the weekend, nuking NW winds are going to take their toll on the snowpack. Finding ourselves on the extreme southern edge of a powerful storm system, we are going going to experience blustery and blowing snow conditions with little to no snow accumulation.

Winds overnight on Pre Laurel Peak have been in the 25-35 mph range with gusts near 50. Gusts today could reach 80 mph! It is currently 17 degrees on Pre Laurel and 26 at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Mountain weather conditions at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

Snow totals at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

New snow totals in Gold Basin.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With strong winds and plenty of snow available for transport there will be sensitive new wind slabs developing primarily on wind exposed, upper elevation terrain. Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees and look for signs of instability such as smooth pillows of recently drifted snow, cracking in the snow surface, or collapsing of the snow pack.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

New wind drifts will provide extra stress on buried persistent slabs. The November snow is turning to facets, or weak sugary snow, and we are now starting to get a load on top. In some cases, old stiff slabs overly these facets, and they are now covered by anywhere from 1-2' of new snow. There is also a very weak layer of mid pack faceting associated with a crust. The concern now is triggering a slide on one off these buries weaknesses. You are most likely to encounter this problem on slopes steeper then 35 degrees on upper elevation slopes with a NW-N-E aspect.

weather

A powerful Pacific storm system on a northwest flow is passing by to the north. This will put our area under cloudy skies, and extremely windy conditions but with only a slight chance at some snow. Today will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures at 10,000' approaching 30 degrees. Winds will continue strong into tonight decreasing by Tuesday.

Today: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Very windy, with a northwest wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow before 1am, then areas of blowing snow and a slight chance of snow between 1am and 4am, then areas of blowing snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -10. Very windy, with a north wind 35 to 40 mph decreasing to 25 to 30 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 12. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northeast after midnight.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 33. North northeast wind around 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy.

Christmas Day: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Breezy.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Blustery.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24.

general announcements

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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.