Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - March 10, 2014 - 6:49am
bottom line

The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. The primary concern is for wet slide activity on sun exposed slopes during periods of daytime heating.

There also remains a MODERATE danger of triggering a deep, buried, persistent slab on mid to upper elevation slopes, steeper than 35 degrees that have a north through east aspect. .




special announcement

This advisory is based on field work performed and observations received over the weekend of February 8-9, and weather data received on Monday, February 10. It is to be used as a baseline for back country travelers who will need to form their own danger analysis based on changing weather conditions during the upcoming week. With no significant snow in the forecast, and with spring-like snow conditions in effect, the primary avalanche danger will be wet slide activity during periods of warm sunny weather. There also remains an isolated danger of triggering a deep, persistent slab, and back country travelers still need to maintain a heightened level of avalanche awareness.

current conditions

La Sal Mountains

Spring like conditions are in effect. Dry, powder like snow conditions are confined to upper elevation, shady aspects. Elsewhere, expect to find sun and heat affected surfaces of varying thickness and degrees of supportability. Sunny aspects will have mostly breakable crusts that soften into slop under the mid day sun. Supportable, corn like conditions may be found on mid elevation, southerly aspects.

Winds and temperature on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,705')

Temperature and new snow totals in Gold Basin (10,050')

Total snow depth and temperature near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9850')

Abajo Mountains

Continued low snow, and spring like snow conditions reign over the Abajo Mountains.

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8968')

recent activity

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Wet slide activity will be the prime area of concern this week on days with warm temperatures and a strong sun. Be alert to signs of instability such as sloppy wet snow, loose sluffs, and roller balls, or pin wheels coming down the mountain. If any of these signs are present, it is time to stay off of and out from under steep, sun exposed slopes. Wet avalanches may also be possible on northerly aspects at lower elevations.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

It still may be possible to trigger a deep and dangerous, persistent slab in areas that have underlying weak snow. Areas of weakest snow can be found in steep, rocky, or slightly wooded terrain, facing the north half of the compass, at upper mid to upper elevations. I would still exercise caution in these areas.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

weather

Monday, look for mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures in mid 40's at 10,000. SW winds will be on the increase ahead of a fast moving Pacific storm system, that will mostly pass by to the north. We will see mostly clouds, SW winds, and a 30% chance of snow from this system Monday night into Tuesday. Sunny skies return on Wednesday.

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 38. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 34.

general announcements

OBSERVATIONS: If you are out and about in the mountains, I'd love to know what you are seeing so please SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS  You can read current OBSERVATIONS HERE.

LUNA GROOMING INFORMATION: Everything was roller packed on Friday, but strong winds Friday night drifted snow over much the track. On Saturday, the road into gold Basin was groomed. 

ROAD CONDITIONS: The road has not been plowed but it saw a lot of traffic over the weekend. 

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