Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - February 10, 2014 - 10:42pm
bottom line

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. This danger is primarily located on, but not limited to, mid to upper elevation slopes with a N-NE-E aspect. Considerable danger means that natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. Back country travelers will need to practice safe travel techniques, staying off of, and out from under steep terrain. With warming temperatures this week, there is also a MODERATE danger for wet slide activity, primarily on southerly aspects. At lower elevations however, this danger will be possible on all aspects.




special avalanche bulletin

This advisory is based on field work performed, and observations received over the period of February 8-10. The next advisory will be posted on Friday, February 14th, and back country travelers will need to make their own danger analysis using this advisory as a baseline over the next few days. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the mountains of SE Utah. In the La Sal mountains, over 2' of snow has fallen in the past week, and  6" of dense, heavy snow fell on February 9th. An increase in winds on February 10th have created new wind slabs up to 3' deep along upper elevation ridge lines. The additional load has added stress to buried weak layers increasing the danger of triggering a deeper, persistent slab. In the Abajo Mountains, where a much shallower snow pack exists, rain fell on snow at lower elevations increasing the danger of wet slide activity. Rising temperatures this week will further exacerbate this problem. At upper elevations in the Abajos, about 6" of heavy, wet snow has accumulated over a weak, underlying snow pack, and reports of snowmobile triggered avalanches in North Creek have come in. Back country travelers need to use extreme caution and are advised to avoid avalanche terrain over the next several days.

current conditions

La Sal Mountains

The La Sals picked up another 6" of heavy, dense snow between Sunday and Monday. Reports from the weekend indicate "upside down" conditions and an increasing avalanche danger. Warming temperatures this week will continue to affect the snow surface and avalanche conditions. For good, safe, powder conditions, seek out mid elevation, sheltered elevation slopes.

Winds and temperature on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,705')

Temperature and new snow totals in Gold Basin (10,050')

Total snow depth and temperature near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9850')

Abajo Mountains

Trace amounts of snow have fallen in the Abajo Mountains, and rain has fallen at lower elevations. See this report from Scott Watson. At upper elevations, up to 6" of snow has accumulated over the past week, and with moderate SW winds, the avalanche danger has risen. Reports of snowmobile triggered avalanches in North Creek have come in.

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak (11,330')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8968')

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Heavier snow, and steady winds have created wind drifts up to 3' deep on upper elevation N-NE aspects. Cracking and collapsing in the new snow has been wide spread in wind affected areas. Mark Sevenoff provided us with pictures in this report.Expect to find deep and dangerous wind slabs on steep, N-NE-E aspects and back country travelers are advised to avoid these slopes. With continued winds and so much snow available for transport, slabs will also be forming in wind affected terrain any where they can, so be alert to cross loading on all aspects on the lee sides of terrain features, particularly at upper elevations.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Snow stability tests continue to indicate that the new snow weight is dangerously close to affecting buried, persistent weak layers in the snow pack. Currently, all that is needed to trigger a large avalanche into deeper, old snow is a significant trigger. This could easily be you. In addition, strong winds today will transport significant amounts of snow, adding further weight and stress to these buried weak layers. It is a very delicate balance out there right now, and the possibility of triggering a deep, persistent slab is a very real and present danger.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With forecasted temperatures expected to rise to near 40 degrees at 10,000' feet this week, expect the danger for wet avalanches to rise, primarily on sun exposed slopes after noon. At lower elevations however, the danger for wet, loose avalanches will also exist on northerly aspects.

weather

Ridging and unseasonably warm temperatures will develop over the region for the upcoming week.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. North wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.

general announcements

OBSERVATIONS: If you are out and about in the mountains, I'd love to know what you are seeing so please SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS  You can read current OBSERVATIONS HERE.

LUNA GROOMING INFORMATION: Trails were groomed on Sunday.

ROAD CONDITIONS: Significant traffic has kept the new snow packed in and the road is easily passable for vehicles with 4wd.

UAC MOBILE APP: Get your advisory on your iphone with this app