Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - December 30, 2013 - 6:48am
bottom line

There is currently a LEVEL 2 (MODERATE) avalanche danger at this time. Buried, persistent slabs overlying weak, sugary snow, remain the prime area of concern. Though continually lessening, this problem still exists on mid to upper elevation slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that have a NW-NE aspect. Elsewhere in the range, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.




special announcement

This advisory is based on fieldwork performed over the weekend of December 28-29, and weather observations taken the morning of December 30. It is to be used as a general guideline with the view that conditions in the mountains can change rapidly. Weather for the next few days will be relatively uneventful as we remain under a dry, NW flow through the week, with a weak disturbance affecting our area on Friday. This advisory will be updated on Friday, or sooner if significant changes occur.

current conditions

La Sal Mountains

Surface conditions run the full gamete out there right now. Everything from supportable sun crusts on sunny exposures, to wind crusts on exposed shadier aspects. Soft, settled, re-crystallized powder conditions can still be found in sheltered areas. Much of the pack is being taken over by facets, which means that it is turning into a pile of sugar, particularly on sheltered, mid-elevation slopes, In these areas, it is possible to sink right through to the ground through 24"-30" of snow. There is currently 22" on the ground at Geyser Pass Trailhead, and 34" in Gold Basin.

Abajo Mountains

Low snow conditions prevail in the Abajos though there is enough snow to slide around on. A trip up North Creek, to Abajo Peak, on Saturday, revealed 18"-24" of snow on the ground above about 10,000' on shady aspects. Bare ground is exposed on south facing slopes, and even east facing slopes with a slight southerly component are showing areas of exposed ground. Snow surface conditions run the full gamete similar to the La Sals.

recent activity

.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Buried, persistent slabs continue to be the main area of concern. Though the odds of triggering one of these slabs are growing less likely, one triggered would be large and dangerous. You are most likely to find these slabs on upper elevation, NW-NE aspects steeper than 35 degrees, particularly in areas of rocky terrain. Suspect areas with a smooth, rounded appearance, and be alert to the many steep convexities in our mountain range. This type of terrain can lure you far down a slope to where if a slide is released, it will fracture well above you. The existing snow pack consists of a variety of weak layers including buried surface hoar, depth hoar, facet/crust combinations, and areas where the entire pack has turned to faceted, sugary snow. This type of snow pack structure does not bode well for the future, and we are now playing a waiting game in anticipation of the next snow load.

weather

We will remain under a dry NW flow for most of the week, with a weak disturbance moving into our area on Friday.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Northwest wind around 15 mph.
New Year's Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 35.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Automated weather for the La Sal Mountains:

Current wind and temperature on Pre-Laurel Peak

Temperature and new snow totals in Gold Basin

Automated weather for the Abajo Mountains:

Current wind and temperature on Abajo Peak

Temperature and snow depth at Camp Jackson

general announcements

The Utah Avalanche Center along with the Montana State University Ski Tracks project combines GPS technology with detailed logbook surveys completed by participants to help us understand how and why decisions are made in the winter backcountry. Participants will use a free smartphone app to record and send us their ski routes then, they will complete a simple online survey telling us some of the features of their tour. For more information visit http://www.montana.edu/wwwes/facilities/tracks.htm?origin=snowscience

OBSERVATIONS: If you are out and about in the mountains, I'd love to know what you are seeing. Please submit your OBSERVATIONS HERE

LUNA GROOMING INFORMATION: All trails including the upper meadows at Geyser Pass and the road into Gold Basin are groomed and in prime condition. 

ROAD CONDITIONS: The road is clear with a packed surface of snow. 

UAC MOBILE APP: Get your advisory on your iphone with this app