Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Moab Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - December 7, 2013 - 6:39am
bottom line

The bottom line is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche hazard on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that have with areas of wind drifted snow. This hazard is most pronounced on slopes with a NW-NE aspect at mid to upper elevations. Choose slopes carefully, practice safe travel techniques and stay out from under run out zones. Expect the hazard to increase throughout the day.




current conditions

Yet another storm is at our doorstep bringing with it the promise of a foot or more of new snow to the mountains. Snowfall should start about mid morning and continue through the night. Temperatures will rise today to about 15 degrees at 10,000' and winds will pick up from the SW averaging 15 mph with gusts to 25.. Skiing and riding conditions remained excellent after the last storm. There is currently 20" on the ground at the Geyser Pass Trailhead, and 39" in Gold Basin.

recent activity

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Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With plenty of snow available for transport and more in the forecast, be alert to new, developing wind slabs. Expect this hazard to rise during the day as the snow begins to pile up. The hazard will be most prominent on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that have a NW-E aspect at mid and upper elevations. Be alert to signs of instability in the snow such as cracking or collapsing, and look for characteristic, round, smooth pillows that indicate recently deposited wind slabs.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The second avalanche problem will be persistent slabs over riding buried weak snow. This problem exists on mid to upper elevation slopes with NW-NE aspects where snow has remained on the ground since early October. Wind and snow today and tomorrow will increase the load on this deeper instability adding straw to the proverbial camels back. The added weight of a skier or rider could justr enough weight to trigger a large and un-survivable avalanche.

weather

Temperatures will climb into the mid teens today with winds averaging 15 mph from the SW gusting to 25. Snowfall accumulations today are expeted to be 3-5" with another 7-11" tonight.Winds will be on the increase tonight with gusts up to 40 mph. Snowfall should linger into Sunday with a few more inches possible. Temperatures will again be cold with a high near 10 degrees and a wind chill value of -10.

general announcements

LUNA Information: We plan to get the grooming equipment up to the GPTH on Saturday. There will be a meeting for all interested grooming volunteers next Saturday, December 14, at 8 a.m. at the MARC.

ROAD CONDITIONS: Plow crews will be initiating road closures during plowing this season due to conflicts with traffic. The plan is to call me the day before they plan to plow so I can post it in this advisory. This closure could take up to two hours sop please plan accordingly. San Juan County has done an excellent job so far this year, and the road is clear for the weekend. Do not expect plowing over the weekend should we get new snow, and please keep in mind that their first priority after a storm is to open roads in and around populated areas.