Advisory: Moab Area Mountains | Issued by Max Forgensi for December 15, 2012 - 6:37am |
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bottom line The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable on NE-N-NW slopes greater than 32 degrees at any elevation. These aspects held a weak, shallow snow pack before the storm and just received a considerable amount of wind loading. Watch out for remote triggering of these slopes from below or from ridgelines.
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current conditions Thank you ULLR and a much anticipated change in the weather pattern! In the past 24 hours, the La Sal and Abajo Mountains received significant snow fall amounts, and it looks light it might keep coming. In the La Sal Mountains, our Gold Basin (10,000') study plot recorded 15" of snow in the past 24 hours, with the Geyser Pass Winter TH SNOTEL (9,600') verifying this amount with 1.7" of H20 registering and 13 " of new snow reported there. The winds have been playing into the equation, please read on. Current temperatures at the trailhead are 20" In the Abajo Mountains, the Camp Jackson station reports 12" of snow with 1.3" of H20 registering in the past 24 hours with a current temperature of 22 degrees. The winds on Abajo Peak have been lighter than those of the La Sals. Transport winds stayed under the 14 mph threshold for the past 12 hours. If you are interested in finding out the current weather, go to our La Sal and Abajo Mountain Weather Page to assist you with nowcasting. The road to the Geyser Pass Winter TH will be very slick today, think about parking your snowmobile trailers down low or heading around to the east side of the range. The UAC-Moab is just not bringing theirs, especially with the congestion expected with the double whammy LUNA and Grand County Search and Rescue training this morning. 4WD and chains are recommended. LUNA will be grooming today, the extent of which will be updated for tomorrow. |
recent activity Transport winds at the Pre-Laurel Weather Station have been howling out of the SE-S-SW since before the storm arrive and continue to do so. Averages ranged from the low 30's to the mid-teens. All pointing to significant wind deposits on NW-N-NE slopes, the only real place where snow was residing before the storm. There has been a significant load applied to a weak, shallow snowpack. I would expect a natural cycle to have occurred and the potential of human triggered activity. The only good news is that the storm started warm and has continued to get colder throughout the past 24 hours. The temperature continues to tick lower and lower on the thermometer. This is good for bonding yet not going to be enough to limit avalanche activity. |
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Soft wind slabs will be our biggest concern for the weekend on NW-N-NE slopes and throughout the entire elevation spectrum. With average wind values greater than 30 mph, snow can be transported lower onto the starting zones of avalanche paths. Cross loading will be a major concern at and above treeline. This weekend will be tricky. Avalanche danger in wind loaded areas should preclude your yearning for some snow quality. |
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The La Sal Mountains did not have any snow on S-W aspects to speak of before the storm while the Abajos were bare. The hazard with new snow will be logs, rocks and stumps just under the first real storm of the season. Be careful out there |
weather Today: Snow. High near 24. South southwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. |
general annoucements The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years. Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks! The Utah Avalanche Center will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH. On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up. |