Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Max Forgensi

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable on steep wind loaded and cross-loaded aspects at and above tree line. The rest of southeast Utah will be at a "touchy" Moderate, where human triggered avalanches on most aspects and elevations are still possible.

Enjoy the new snow, but do so in safe locations. The next couple of days is not the time to raise the bar too high.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

San Juan County was out in force yesterday, the road to every trail head is clear. Thank you !

There is 26" of snow at the Geyser Pass trail head and Gold Basin has 40" (100 cm) on the ground. Down in the Abajo Mountains, there is 31"of snow on the ground at Camp Jackson. It is already 35 degrees down at Camp Jackson, 19 degrees on Abajo Peak.

Ridge top winds have been very strong for the past 24 hours out of the N-NNW in the La Sal's and out of the WNW on Abajo Peak. Averages range between 18-39 mph, strong and consistent enough to transport snow onto leeward sides of upper elevation slopes and ridges.

There is decent skiing conditions on wind and sun protected slopes in southeast Utah. Strong solar gain yesterday created sun crusts on south-west aspects, while the wind made for dense snow up high.


RECENT ACTIVITY

On Thursday's tour, whoomps and shooting cracks seemed to consistently propagate from our skin track, some of which that traveled over 300 yards. Although avalanche activity was limited to isolated terrain, today will be very dangerous for human triggered avalanches. The snow pack contains a lot of energy (sudden planar, sudden collapse shear) and the new snow from the past week sits on a very mature faceted layer in many areas (poor structure). The strength of the snow pack in terms of stability tests are in the moderate to hard range, which gives a false sense of stability. With lots of stored energy, an additional stress (READ: YOU) is all it will take to tip the balance.

Look HERE to see some of the results we saw during yesterday's tour.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

The way that the La Sal mountains are aligned to the wind currently has created a cross loading pattern on numerous at and above treeline aspects. Cross loading may occur in areas like the Funnel, where there is a large fetch area of snow to transport.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No probability identified.
No size identified.
No trend identified.

Although the great north wind is transporting snow, the wind is not surfacing in all areas. THEREISAPOORSNOWPACKSTRUCTUREANDLOTSOFENERGY. Be especially careful on steep slopes below treeline. The mountains are very sensitive right now.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

@ 10,000' in Gold Basin, La Sal Mountains, Utah Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph. Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. South wind around 5 mph becoming west. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.