Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Max Forgensi

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The BOTTOM LINE for Saturday will be an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees at and above treeline. The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE as the storm progresses.

This advisory will be updated on Sunday morning.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

A storm is barking at our doorstep this morning bringing very strong winds and a significant moisture plume to our west-southwest...a good alignment for our mountain ranges. Avalanche danger will rise in a direct relationship with the amount of snow that accumulates/available for transport. Anyone venturing out into the back country during or after the storm event should do so cautiously.

LUNA volunteer Matt Hebberd layed down a sick track of corduroy up to Geyser Pass and into Gold Basin on Thursday afternoon. Friday's Nordic and skate skiing conditions were superb. Thanks Matt! Saturday will be a different story.

15" of snow is at the Geyser Pass TH, Gold Basin 26" (65 cm) while down at Camp Jackson there is 21" of snow on the ground.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Nothing to report.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

In over 90% of the locations I traveled on Friday, the snow pack was just a pile of facets, punching down to the ground surface. A myriad of crusts topped the facet garden, from thin wind skins to melt-freeze crusts on sunnier aspects.

The lack of settlement in the past couple of weeks (less than 15%), type of snow grains (non cohesive facets) and a snow pack that covers enough ground hazards to reduce anchoring has created a condition similar to what the mountains looked like before the mid-December avalanche cycle. A significant snow event will result in widespread natural avalanche activity on many avalanche paths that have run before, which will occur Saturday evening and Sunday.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

@ 10,000' in Gold Basin, La Sal Mountains, Utah

Saturday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 41. Very windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 17. Very windy, with a west wind 35 to 40 mph decreasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. West wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Monday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 32.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab is canceling its annual AIARE Level I Course which is scheduled for February 3rd - 5th. The lack of snow and the subsequent lack of interest will make this the first year a Level I class will not be conducted in Moab for over 10 years!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.