Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Max Forgensi

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The BOTTOMLINEfor today will be MODERATE on steep slopes at and above tree line in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Blue skies, warm temperatures and powder will lure curious Wasatch Front multi-sport powder hounds looking to escape the smog into potentially hazardous situations. Stick to the facts. Weak shallow snow pack equates to lethal consequences in avalanche terrain. There is plenty of locations to make good turns without sticking your neck out.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

The snow is drying out and the natural slab avalanche cycle is over for the time being. Important avalanche paths on North-Northeast have "flushed" out from around the tree line level. Large pieces of dangerous snow still lie above tree-line, yet the avalanche cycle is aiding in the protection for touring into low angle, high alpine locations. Back country skiers must beware of steep isolated terrain features and terrain traps while traveling in below tree line locations.

The Geyser Pass trailhead has 17" of snow on the ground, and 30" (75 cm) blanket the Gold Basin study plot. Camp Jackson in the Abajo's report 26" of snow on the ground. Abajo and Pre-Laurel Peak are reporting temperature's around 30 degrees F this morning as an inversion is in place.

The best skiing conditions will be on sheltered Northerly facing slopes from treeline down to the 10,500' level, where ground hazards and unconsolidated snow reduce turning confidence. South and West facing slopes may have received a zipper crust from yesterdays temperature above freezing for four hours. Time is running out on these aspects.

San Juan County has done an excellent job plowing. 2WD will suffice. Beware of icy patches in the afternoon.

LUNA volunteers Gerrish and Eddie groomed the Gold Basin, Meadow and Geyser Pass track yesterday. Thank you!


RECENT ACTIVITY

Numerous avalanche paths slid in both the La Sal and Abajo Mountains early in the work week. Natural activity today will be limited to loose sluffs on westerly and southerly aspects. Take a look at my observations from yesterday from more information.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Our weak, thin snow pack has a persistent surface hoar layer and a buried facet sandwich. Convex roll overs, rocks, trees and logs are all trigger points for avalanches on steep terrain.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No trend identified.

Loose snow avalanches are expected today from the warming sun.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

@ 10,000' in Gold Basin, La Sal Mountain Range. Today: Sunny, with a high near 39. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Calm wind. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 10 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. North northeast wind around 15 mph. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 30. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 16


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The Utah Avalanche Center will be holding the following classes for the public.

Friday, January 6th 2012. Basic Avalanche Awareness at the Grand County Library. 6:00 pm

The Annual AIARE Level I class on February 3rd-5th. Call Max Forgensi at 435-636-3335 for more info.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.