Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

This will be out last forecast of the 2010-2011 season. Thanks for another great winter. Remember that avalanche dangers will last after we close the doors so be careful out there. See you in December.

The Utah Avalanche Center has put together a survey that we'd love for you folks to complete: LINK TO SURVEY. Thanks for a great season.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Another short lived corn cycle in SE Utah is coming to an end and it will be winter conditions again as we head into next week.

Mostly LOW avalanche danger exists in the mountains of SE Utah right now but don't be surprised if there are a few "skier education pockets" lurking in the high country on E-NE-NW facing slopes. Also, expect a quick rise in the avalanche danger with any new snow or wind as loads will be drifting onto very weak old snow layers.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

The last few days of nicer weather and warm temperatures have led to the start of what will likely be a short lived spring corn cycle. Snow forecast for Sunday, and again later mid-week will push spring skiing back for probably another week and keep the powder dry for yet another dose of winter conditions. Today's blustery conditions will no doubt damage the upper elevation snow, so as usual, mid to low elevation skiing and riding will be your best bet.

Roads into the SE Utah mountains trailheads are all plowed or melted out. 4wd or chains are never a bad idea though.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance has stopped grooming operations for the 2010-2011 season. Thanks Volunteers!.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Click here for an explanation of the North American Danger Rating system

Weak snow on all aspects of the La Sal and Abajo Mountain ranges plaugues us into April as a result of 2 months of mid-winter high pressure. In a not unusual pattern of southwestern weather, we had many clear nights and cold temperatures. This allows for the development of faceted grains that often remain weak for weeks or months after their formation and prevent the snowpack from ever being able to hold much of a new snow load. The buried grains can also be the cause of long lasting instabilities after a load is applied or rapid warming occurs.

The possibility of avalanches in the Mountains of SE Utah is in the mostly Low at the moment, being lessened by warm temperatures. Pockets of MODERATEremain in high elevation E-NE-NW facing slopes due wind loading. This will change with the next storm. Expect the danger to go up. Snows from the next storm will be falling on a very weak old snowpack that contains a layer cake of stronger and weaker layers. Large releases into old snow are not out of the question even as we reluctantly move towards spring in the high country.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No trend identified.

Wet avalanches are likely in the afternoons with any warm-up over the next couple of days. Especially if we get new snow. Don't stay out on sunny slopes too late!


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

This Afternoon:

Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Tonight:

A slight chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday:

Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph becoming west northwest 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday:

Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night:

Mostly clear, with a low around 27.

Tuesday:

Sunny and breezy, with a high near 47.

Tuesday Night:

Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 29.

Wednesday:

Snow likely. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 37.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We'll see you again next December.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.