Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

We are winding the season down here at the La Sal Avalanche Center and will only be putting forecasts out 2-3 times per week. Our last forecast will be on the second of April. The Utah Avalanche Center has put together a survey that we'd love for you folks to complete: LINK TO SURVEY. Thanks for a great season.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

CONSIDERABLE to HIGH avalanche dangers exist in SE Utah with new snow, high winds and an extremely weak E-NE-NW facing snowpack. We have not made the transition to spring conditions yet in the high country, and dry winter snow falling on these E-NE-NW facing slopes is still a major concern. Avalanches are being observed in the La Sals and snowfall continues. Keep the slope angles down or stay in the trees. The tree skiing is reportedly quite good.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Since last Wednesday's forecast we've picked up another 4 to 10 inches of new snow with some belligerent winds from the south. The upper total came in from the La Sal Gold Basin study plot. Despite the winds, good skiing is being reported in low to mid - elevation zones that provide some shelter from the barrage. The alpine is destroyed and avalanche conditions won't allow for a prudent visit to your favorite big line yet. Right now it is very cold in the high country 12 degrees at the La Sal Snotel, and 6 degrees at the Gold Basin study plot at 10,000 feet. We have about 80 inches on the ground at the La Sal study plot, about 110% of normal. The Abajos have 30 inches on the ground at the Camp Jackson Study plot (86oo ft) putting them at 101% of normal.

Roads into the La Sals have not been plowed yet. 4wd or chains recommended.

No work has been done on La Sal Nordic system. Volunteers are getting scarce!


RECENT ACTIVITY

Class 2 activity in Gold Basin E-NE-N facing reported from Wednesday. More snow now. Careful!


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Click here for an explanation of the North American Danger Rating system

The steady drumbeat of new snow and southerly winds continues. Our shady side snowpack (E-NE-NW) is really rotten. It is difficult to isolate a column in some areas and large faceted grains fall out of snow pit walls like sand. The higher you go the harder some of the wind slabs become that sandwich these rotten layers, highlighting the potential for a release into old snow. It's ugly out there.

With up to a foot of new snow in the high country and strong southerly winds (gusts to 70 again on Thursday, 35-40 mph averages all day yesterday) a LOT of snow is getting piled up on these weak layers. We are calling the avalanche danger CONSIDERABLE with pockets of HIGH danger on upper elevation E-NE-NW facing slopes. The pockets of higher danger will be near treeline slopes where the snow is weakest. Don't take any chances here folks trying to differentiate between bad and worse zones here folks, human triggered avalanches are likely! Any wind drifted areas should be considered suspect regardless of aspect. Spring has NOT arrived in the mountains of SE Utah despite a brief run at lower elevations this past week. Please ski conservatively.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today:

Scattered snow showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a north wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight:

Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday:

Snow showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night:

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Monday:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west northwest.

Monday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Tuesday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

Tuesday Night:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Wednesday:

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 36.

Wednesday Night:

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Thursday:

Sunny, with a high near 41.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message by Sunday morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.