Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

CONSIDERABLE avalanche dangers remain in SE UTAH on the E-NE-NW facing slopes in the La Sals, Expect MODERATE dangers else where in SE Utah including the Abajo range where less snow fell in the last storm. Skiing and riding conditions are excellent if you avoid sun baked areas. Watch for wet slides with daytime heating on steep sunny slopes.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Fantastic skiing and riding conditions continue to put smiles on the faces of backcountry enthusiasts in SE Utah. Reports of great skiing keep coming in and should stay with us as long as you can avoid snow affected by the great bake-off of he last 2 days. Corn snow soon. for now, keep to the shady sides E-NE-NW facing, and conditions should be great. Trailhead temperatures are already in the high 20's so expect warm temps today.

Road access to the Geyser Pass Trailhead in the La Sals has been groomed and access to the Monticello WInter trailhead has been cleared also.

Matt Hebbard rolled the entire track Thursday and another team is supposed to head up Friday and finish the job with the roller and the Ginzu groomer so we should have the entire track prepared for classic and skate skiing. Enjoy!


RECENT ACTIVITY

Lot's of activity with the last storm:

Dorry canyon - N. facing 100' wide class 2

Exxons Folley, Tele gold, Mid cirque, Talking mtn cirque - the usual suspects all class 2's - ran in Gold Basin with a sizable pocket breaking out of the gut of the Tukno slide path Class 2.5 destructive force.

All of these except Dorry Canyon appeared to have run during the storm, most likely during the intense precipitation intensity we experienced overnight Monday night.

Thanks to those folks who submitted observations this cycle. You can check out photos of some of these slides and other info from this storm in the CURRENT CONDITIONS section of this web page.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Click here for an explanation of the North American Danger Rating system

We've now reached the tough decision making phase of backcountry travel. We're calling the avalanche danger CONSIDERABLE or Level 3 of 5 on slopes above 10,000 feet or so that are E-NE-NW facing and MODERATE elsewhere We have declining avalanche danger but a very rotten snowpack that will only slowly adjust to it's load. We've had wind loading, heavy snow and obvious avalanche activity. Persistent weak layers often present in the SE Utah snowpack have been identified and a touring party reported yesterday that in snowpit tests at treeline on a N. facing slope they were unable to isolate a column of snow. This indicated very poor stability in this location! It is not time to go big in the La Sals yet. More time is needed for safe travel on shady side steeps in Se Utah.

Avalanche dangers will be MODERATE in the Abajo Mountains where 5" of new snow containing .5" h2o has been measured. Human triggered avalanches possible especially on SE-E-NE facing slopes.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

We expect the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE today (again) on sunny E-SE-SW-W facing slopes as warm temperatures and solar radiation affect the snow intensely. Don't stay out on these sunny slopes too late in the day. Forecast highs for 10,000 feet are 46 degrees today. Mighty warm.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Saturday:

A slight chance of rain and snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. South southwest wind around 15 mph.

Sunday:

Partly sunny, with a high near 44. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west.

Sunday Night:

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

Monday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday:

Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 44.

Tuesday Night:

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Wednesday:

Partly sunny, with a high near 45.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message Sunday morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.