Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

In the La Sals, 14-16 inches of new snow with a minimum of 1.7" of new water weight will create High or Level 4 avalanche dangers. Natural and Human triggered avalanches are almost certain. Large old snow avalanches are likely.

CONSIDERABLE or Level 3 Avalanche Dangers can be expected in the ABAJOS where 5 inches of new snow was measured containing .5" of new water weight. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Like the La Sals, this new snow is falling on a very weak base of old snow and minimum values of snow and water required for slab avalanche formation are very low.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Mother Nature put the hammer down last night and we've picked up 16" at our Gold Basing Study plot in the La Sals. Starting at about 8:00 last Monday night the precipitation intensity really kicked in and it snowed hard for about 6 hours bringing us to heavy snow on a SW, then WNW flow. Snow is tapering off now and Trailhead temperatures are in the high teens with light WNW winds. Conditions will be epic, dangerous, and perhaps unaccessible with out a snow machine. Please be careful out there folks.

Road Access to SE Utah Mountain Trailheads has not been cleared yet . With less snow in the Abajos, the old Blue Mountain Ski resort out of Monticello might be the best access we have available at the moment. Expect deep snow and drifting on La Sal Mountain accesses until plow crews can get up there.

We're holding off on the grooming program until this storm runs it's course.


RECENT ACTIVITY

We'll keep you posted.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Click here for an explanation of the North American Danger Rating system

This is an easy call folks. Expect to find HIGH or LEVEL4 avalanche dangers in the La Sal Mountains with heavy snow falling onto weak older snow. The new snow alone would be enough to create a significant hazard, but with our highly layered and frighteningly weak old snowpack, we can expect avalanches that will take out some off the old snow with it. With the precipitation intensity we had going last night I would not be surprised if this has happened in many slide paths already.We've measured 16" in Gold Basin and 14" at the La Sal SNOTEL containing 1.7" of water. We are well over critical values for snow depth and water weight. Natural and Human triggered avalanches are likely! Heads up!

Avalanche dangers will be CONSIDERABLE in the Abajo Mountains where 5" of new snow containing .5" h2o has been measured. Human triggered avalanches possible especially on SE-E-NE facing slopes.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today:

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 30. West northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight:

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night:

Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Thursday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest.

Thursday Night:

Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 25.

Friday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Friday Night:

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Saturday:

Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night:

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday:

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 36.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message THursdsay morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.