BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)

Danger Rose Tutorial

Great snow conditions can be found in the Mountains of SE Utah at the moment and more snow in generous amounts is forecast for the area. Right now avalanche dangers remain at MODERATE (Level 2) with pockets of CONSIDERABLE(Level 3) near and above treeline in wind affected areas. Our old snowpack is horrendous will not bond well or support much new snow. We expect a sharp rise in the avalanche danger with the Monday storm so be prepared for this.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Clouds have already arrived in the area in advance of what forecasters are saying will be a generous storm for SE Utah. Conditions are great on E-NE-NW facing slopes and winds have been well behaved in a reprieve from the "Great Winds of February" we celebrated all last month. Temperatures are warm this morning with reporting weather stations in the 25-30 degree range and light SW winds.

Road Access to SE Utah Mountain Trailheads has not been cleared yet this weekend. 4WD and Chains recommended. there was enough traffic yesterday to make the road to Geyser Pass quite easy if you have a vehicle with any clearance.

We're holding off on the grooming program until after the next storm system rolls through.

THREAT #1

WHERE

PROBABILITY

SIZE

TREND

Over the next 24 hours.

Click here for an explanation of the North American Danger Rating system

Current danger rating stays appropriate with little to no slab observation in the mountains since the last snows and our light winds over the last 2 days. The Avalanche dangers in the Mountains of SE Utah are mostly MODERATE or Level 2, BUT I expect that there may be pockets of elevated or CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) danger in the high country above treeline in areas affected by N. Winds and then SW Winds. Do some investigative work before you dive in, and look for the presence of rounded or smooth areas of wind drifted snow.

Avalanche dangers will be less severe in the Abajo Mountains where less snow has fallen.

THREAT #2

WHERE

PROBABILITY

SIZE

TREND

No size identified.

Over the next 24 hours.

Wind crusts, facets, old buried surface hoar. You can find it all in our highly layered snowpack where bridging slabs over weaker layers are a sign of potential trouble. There is a layer about 26" down below the snow surface (at 11,300 feet elevation) that is a mix of buried facets and old surface hoar that is VERY weak. The danger of persistent and/or deep slab releases are a very real threat, particularly with a large storm predicted for our area Monday afternoon. If we get 6-8 inches or more of new snow over the next few days, I expect large avalanche activity into old snow on this layer. A great photo of the dirt layer can be seen here, it sits about 10" below the snow surface now and may become a problem later in the season.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today:

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight:

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday:

Snow. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Monday Night:

Snow. Low around 13. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tuesday:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Windy, with a northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tuesday Night:

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 13.

Wednesday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message Tuesday morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.