Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

A new Rescue Sled has been placed at the top of the North Woods to replace the one that was stolen (?!) last year. Thanks to the Alta Ski Patrol for donating that sled to the Grand County Search and Rescue. Thanks also to Ryan Schatzenbach who helped me drag that thing up there. You may now smash yourselves in the N. Woods.

Also, we now have our GOLD BASIN study plot on line with snow totals from 10,000 ft. Yeehaw:

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=GOLDB


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Conditions are improving in SE Utah with an equal rise in the avalanche danger. 2-4 inches of new snow has been measured over the region and more is expected. Current Avalanche Danger is approaching CONSIDERABLE or Level 3 in localized areas of wind deposition. This trend is likely to continue and avalanche dangers are on the rise.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

It looks like we've had 2-4 inches of snow across the La Sals and Abajos falling mostly during the afternoon yesterday. Conditions will be much improved in wind sheltered areas and avalanche dangers are correspondingly on the rise. More snow is expected over the weekend so the wild ride is on. Seriously, do not skip the avalanche threat section of today's forecast. Windy and warm this morning at trailhead elevations.

4wd recommended to reach mountain trailheads. Roads unplowed and drifting likely with S and W winds overnight

We'll get back to you on the grooming.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Nothing reported yet. Plenty expected.

Natural avalanches from wind event reported in San Juan Mountains to our east w/ very similar snow conditions.

You can submit photos and snowpack or avalanche observations here. Send 'em in!!


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Increasing avalanche danger with up 4" of new snow measured at our available measurement sites across the ranges of SE Utah. This new snow was accompanied by enough wind from the West and Southwest to cause drifting and create avalanche issues already on upper elevation SE-E-NE and N facing terrain. We are expecting to find pockets of CONSIDERABLE or Level 3 of 5 avalanche dangers in these areas, meaning that Human Triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible. MODERATE or Level 2 avalanche dangers can be expected in zones with less deposition but keep an eye out for rounded pillows of hollow sounding or obviously wind drifted snow.

The role of our old snowpack in the current instabilities cannot be overstated. The old snowpack in SE Utah is a rotting mess. This is the result of the extended high pressure that we've had since New Year's and winds over the last 2 weeks. Forecast snow totals are impressive for Saturday and Saturday night. If these totals truly arrive, the ensuing avalanche cycle is likely to be very dramatic. Heads up and stay tuned.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today: A 30 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Tonight: A slight chance of snow before 11pm, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: Snow likely and areas of blowing snow before 11am, then snow and areas of blowing snow after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Sunday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Washington's Birthday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Tuesday: A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Thursday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 23.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message Saturday morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.