Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

MODERATE or Level 2 avalanche danger still exist in the mountains of SE Utah. Watch for wind slabs in the high country at and above treeline. Watch daytime heating. Powder skiing on E-NE-NW facing slopes is your best bet for good skiing and riding conditions. Supportable crusts on sunny side slopes are also starting to form.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

20 degrees and climbing at the Pre Laurel Peak weather station this morning and 37 degrees at the Geyser Pass TH. It looks like another warm, sweet day in SE Utah. Good skiing and riding conditions can still be found Mid and low elevation shady side slopes and sunny side slopes are very close to entering a corn cycle. We have 57 inches of snow at the Gold Basin Study Plot, holding out at 108% of normal.

Roads to all SE Utah mountain accesses have been opened up including Geyser Pass, La Sal Eastside and Abajo north end access.

The entire La Sal Nordic Track has been groomed for skate skiing. Gold Basin and the Lower Nordic loops have been groomed for both cross-country and skate skiing. Enjoy. Thanks volunteers.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Limited class 2 activity noted from Wednesday. Quiet since then.

Cracking and collapsing still being noted in snowpack.

You can submit photos and snowpack or avalanche observations here. Send 'em in!!


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Yesterday a group of us went on a tour into the Exxon's Folley slide path. We found some worthwhile skiing, and some incredibly rotten snow. Buried faceted crystals and surface hoar, formed during January high pressure was quite prevalent - weaker than I expected - and will be a factor when new snow rolls into the areas later this week. We experienced several collapses and "whoomphs" as we toured yesterday. One of then was really large, like rolling thunder, and occurred in the main bowl as I left the safety of a previous released natural avalanche that had run. Scary.

We still have some really weak snow pack structures in the SE Utah region. Strong temperature gradients during our recent cold spell probably contributed this weakness. Current MODERATE or Level 2 danger exists mostly where these weak structures may still have a big enough load on them to produce a slide. Where is that you ask? Well, that's the tough part. Certainly, sunny side slopes are loaded after 2 weeks of raging north winds. They are crusted over though, so if you're not out too late in the afternoon you should be fine on these. It is classically, the SHADY Sides, E-NE-NW facing slopes that have the weakest snow and the potential for loading, cross-loading and existing snow loads that are nears the shear vs. strength point. These slopes are closer to avalanching and may be waiting for the weight of a skier or rider. 10,000 - 11,000 foot N. facing slopes are highly suspect if they appear to have any snow load on them (look for drifting) We can expect plenty of activity if we pick up any significant snow later this week.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

Today's forecast high of 44 for 10,000 feet means things will be warm in the high country. Expect avalanche dangers to climb to MODERATE (Level 2) with daytime heating. Don't stay out on sunny steeps too late in the day today. Our buried weak layers (discussed in the previous section) are not limited to cold, powder snow and could be activated by heating.

Early starts for long approaches are mandatory for spring skiing in the La Sals. Unlike the Wasatch, Sierras or many other mountain ranges, big spring wet slides are not uncommon here.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 24. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday: Snow. High near 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 6. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Saturday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message Wednesday morning.

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.