Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

POCKETS OF CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger remain in La Sal Mountains with drifting of new and old snow from major wind event Thurs/Fri. Watch for drifting and hard slabs on E-SE-S-SW-W facing slopes. Let's hope for some snow over the next few days. Conditions are pretty bad.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

The wind event we had Thursday and into Friday will be the major influence in the Mountains of SE Utah today. We had 17 hours of winds with averages above 40 mph from the north on Thursday and Friday morning. We had 13 hours with gusts over 60 mph and topped out at 73 for two hours as well. Needless to say, improvements brought about by the 7" of new snow we measured on Tuesday have been all but erased. These winds have moved around an incredible amount of snow and the carnage is quite visible. North facing slopes that might otherwise be holding some of the better snow have been stripped. Sheltered NE - N - NW facing slopes will be your best bet for turns after the warm temperatures yesterday, but reports are that there are even wind crusts in the North Woods. Good luck. Things are warmer today with 24.5 degree temps at 9800 ft in the La Sals, but winds are back up above forecast levels at 26 mph from the NNW.

LaSal trailhead accesses are plowed to Geyser Pass and to the east side. The Abajo north end access is open (and good) as usual from Monticello.

Richard Coffinberry and myself groomed the entire nordic track yesterday for skate skiing. Classic track-setter is broken at the moment so skate-skiing only has been set. Upper and Lower Nordic loops have been groomed and the roads to Geyser Pass and Gold Basin. Thanks Richard.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Gold Basin - La Sals - Loose snow sluffs and point releases noted Wed. from Tukno into Tele-Gold and Tele-Heaven. Another small class one sluff was noted in the Middle Cirque above The Throne as well.

South facing slab avi's reported in Ophir/T-ride region of San Juan Mtns to our east. Very similar storm/snowpack trend of late. Very pertinent info here!

You can submit photos and snowpack or avalanche observations here. Send 'em in!!


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Impressive wind event has loaded last week's snow and more onto SE -S-SE and W facing slopes. Watch out here on the normally tamer sunny sides. Keeping POCKETS of CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger in the forecast to reflect the likelihood of Human Triggered avalanches on these slopes. Note also that with 70 mph winds slabs are likely to form farther down lee (downwind) slopes than usual so have included mid-elevation slopes in this danger rating. Expect to find a MODERATE Avalanche Danger elsewhere, keeping an eye out for drifted snow on steep slopes.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 8 hours.

Sunny sides are where the snow load is. Watch for daytime heating as warmer temperatures and solar energy influence East through South Through West facing slopes today. The rapid re-warming trend forecast by the NWS has arrived and temperatures at higher elevations were on the order of 35 degrees F warmer than they were 48 hours earlier. Expect to find a MODERATE avalanche danger on these aspects in steep mtn. terrain as things heat up.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today: A 30 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Tonight: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. North northeast wind around 5 mph. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph. Monday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a high near 23. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 18.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message Sunday morning.

La Sal Mountain Ski Hut Open House @ Tag-a-Long Tours Tomasaki Cabin Feb 12th & 13. www.tagalong.com

If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help!


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.