Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

The LSAC still has room for more folks in both our Level 1 (Jan 28-30) and our Level 2 (Feb 3-6) Avalanche Courses. These courses are provided through the American Institute for Avalanche Research and Education who offer an excellent curriculum and teaching methods. They're also inexpensive!


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

The BOTTOM LINE for today in the Abajo and La Sal Mountains is an avalanche danger of MODERATE or LEVEL 2 .

Skiing and riding conditions are excellent. Sunny side slopes have been crusted over by melt-freeze cycles, shady sides and flat areas are holding excellent powder snow.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Snow has begun in the high country and winds are picking up out of the SW. We've picked up an inch or two of new snow overnight in the La Sals and the Abajos. The big warm-up has ended and temps are a more seasonal 23 degrees at Trailhead elevation. High grade Skiing and riding conditions continue to be found in the Mountains of SE Utah. Sunny side slopes are crusted over and there is wind damage on the high ridgelines, but mid and low elevation N-NE-NW facing slopes are holding excellent powder. We have 55" at our Gold Basin Study Plot in the La Sals. We are at 140% of normal in the La Sals, and 213% of normal in the Abajos.

The road to the Geyser Pass Parking lot in the La Sals has now been cleared. San Juan County had some trouble with their grater but it is back in Service now and the road is open. Thanks for the hard work guys!!

With a massive, heroic grooming effort this week, the entire Nordic Trail System in the La Sals has been buffed. Gold Basin, Geyser Pass, and the Upper and Lower Nordic Loops have all been groomed for skate and classic cross-country skiing. Thanks Gerrish, Dick, Matt and Kristi! Next grooming is scheduled for Monday.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Things have quieted down.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Touring in Gold Basin yesterday revealed a shallower snowpack that we have at South Mountain in the La Sals (the Abajos are deepest..) We also found a snowpack with more buried weak layers and overall structural problems. Part of this is due to the fact that South Mountains sits perfectly perpendicular to our most favorable southerly flow and milks 30-40% more precip out of any given storm than the central range. It is also lower, with warmer temperatures and less wind promoting a more homogeneous snowpack.

Finding the buried surface hoar from 12/28 was no surprise. There are also other buried weak layers in the Gold Basin Snowpack between each storm layer. A snowpack with many different layers - variations in hardness and grain size - gets what we refer to as "yellow flags". Coupled with a known persistent weak layer - surface hoar - buried as a large grained, low-density layer and the snowpack in the La Sals is collecting a few too many "yellow flags" to be entirely trusted. Ask yourself: Are these weak snowpack structures going to be a problem where I am planning on going?

We are keeping the Avalanche Danger rating at MODERATEon E-NE-NW facing slopes steeper than 30 degrees. This danger rating is not a "green light". Some snowpack areas in the Mountains of SE Utah (especially in the LaSals) are showing continued structural weaknesses that cannot be entirely trusted. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but Human triggered avalanches are still possible on shady N-NE-NW facing aspects with relatively thin snow coverage. Poke around, dig, gather information and make conservative decisions.

There is a possible increase in the overall hazard with light snowfall predicted through midweek.


THREAT #2

No problem identified.
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
No probability identified.
No size identified.
No trend identified.

.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:

Today: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 1. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Monday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -10. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -15. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Thursday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We will update this message by Wednsday morning, sooner if conditions change.

The Utah Avalanche Center has a limited number of discount lift tickets available for Brian Head Ski Resort. Follow this link for more information: http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center

The LSAC will be offering 2 avalanche classes this year. Our yearly Level 1 class will be held January 28, 29 and 30 of this winter season. The level 1 class focuses on avalanche phenomena, recognition and management of terrain where you might encounter these beasts and basic rescue.

This season, if we can pick up 6 participants, we are also hoping to do a Level 2 class. Tentative dates for the class are February 3-6. It is a 4-day class reviewing the basics covered in level 1, then carrying the subject matter further, exploring snowpack formation, crystal analysis, climactic effects and advanced rescue.

Call 435-636-3363 and speak to Dave or Max for more information or to sign up for one of the classes.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.