Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

AVALANCHE WARNING »

Dangerous avalanche conditions are occuring or are imminent. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Notice:

We've continued the Avalanche Warning for the Abajo Mountains of SE Utah this morning. We've had up to 2 feet of heavy, dense snow in the Abajos over the last 48 hours and water totals from this storm are topping out at a whopping 4.5 inches.

More snow is expected in SE Utah today and tonight with periods of intense snow and high winds. This new snow is falling on a very weak layer of old snow creating dangerous avalanche conditions on steep mountain slopes.

Continued heavy snowfall and high winds have pushed the Avalanche Danger Rating to HIGH (LEVEL 4). Large and destructive avalanches are likely to occur over the next few days. Backcountry travelers should avoid all avalanche slopes and runout zones.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Avalanche Dangers in SE Utah are still critical and the Avalanche Danger Rating remains at HIGH or Level 4 in some areas of SE Utah, especially the Abajo Mountains near Monticello. This snow is dense enough that steep slopes aren't essential for good skiing and riding so you can keep the slope angles below 30 degrees and still have a good time.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

We've allowed the SE Utah avalanche warning issued through NOAA to expire for the La Sals as precipitation rates have fallen well short of what other southwestern mountain ranges are receiving. The Abajos have surged ahead in water totals and have gone from 37% of normal to 126% in this storm.

The snow that had started out with so much promise last Sunday has tapered off in the La Sal Mountains and they have simply not been able to wring any moisture out of this storm. Ditto for Telluride. Not so for the Abajo and the southern San Juans however where the snow has steadily piled up over the last 48 hours. More snow remains in the forecast for today. Storm totals so far:

La Sal Snotel: 9" snow, 1.7" water

Gold Basin (La Sals): 13" snow, 2.1" water - We've lost comms with this site as of 0900 yesterday so totals are likely higher than this

Camp Jackson Snotel (Abajos) 18" snow, 4.5" water - possibly some rain here in this mix

Remember folks, it's the water weight, not the snow depth that applies the load that causes avalanching. We are well over critical values for snow slides in both the La Sals and the Abajos.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead was plowed by SJ County on Tuesday. Thanks Guys!

Cross-country ski grooming is scheduled for Friday.

The Old Blue Mountain Ski resort may be the touring call for the next few days.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Limited visibility - Geyser roadcuts have slid naturally.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

In areas where winds have deposited the most snow we can expect to find a HIGH (LEVEL 4) avalanche danger. This will certainly be the case in the Abajos where dense snow, and possibly some rain, have added a huge load to the snowpack over the last 48 hours. The most dangerous zones will be steep East through Northeast through Northwest facing slopes at and above treeline. Heads up in North Wash in the Abajos! Elsewhere CONSIDERABLE (LEVEL3) avalanche dangers can be expected. Human triggered avalanches are likely. Be suspect of any slope with wind drifted snow on it steeper than 30 degrees.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

High winds stacking up stiff slabs over old, faceted snow is a classic SE Utah recipe for long lasting instabilities. Expect the tender situation in SE Utah to last a bit longer than usual with this combo. Just because the avalanche warning has been dropped for the La Sal mountains does not mean it is a green light snowpack situation up there either!

Check out our last snowpit from Sunday here. Coyote Chute - La Sals. Kinda scary.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 feet: More snow through Thursday.

Today: Snow. High near 40. South southeast wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. Low around 26. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday: Snow. High near 32. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. North northwest wind around 5 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 37. North northeast wind around 5 mph. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Christmas Day: Sunny, with a high near 39. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The LSAC will be offering 2 avalanche classes this year. Our yearly Level 1 class will be held January 28, 29 and 30 of this winter season. The level 1 class focuses on avalanche phenomena, recognition and management of terrain where you might encounter these beasts and basic rescue.

This season, if we can pick up 6 participants, we are also hoping to do a Level 2 class. Tenative dates for the class are February 3-6. It is a 4-day class reviewing the basics covered in level 1, then carrying the subject matter further, exploring snowpack formation, crystal analysis, climactic effects and advanced rescue.

Call 435-636-3363 and speak to Dave or Max for more information or to sign up for one of the classes.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.