Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

AVALANCHE WARNING »

Dangerous avalanche conditions are occuring or are imminent. Backcountry travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Notice:

Areas of SE Utah have received 1 to 2 feet of heavy, wet snow in the past 24 hours. More snow is expected over the region for the next two days with periods of intense snow and high winds. This new snow is falling on a very weak layer of old snow creating dangerous avalanche conditions on steep mountain slopes. Avalanche dangers will continue to rise over the next 2 days as a southern storm track brings intense precipitation to Southern Utah and Colorado.

Continued heavy snowfall and high winds will push the Avalanche Danger Rating to HIGH (LEVEL 4). Large and destructive avalanches are likely to occur over the next few days. Backcountry travelers must avoid avalanche slopes and runout zones.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Expect to find CONSIDERABLE (level 3) to HIGH(level 4) avalanche danger in Mountain Terrain in SE Utah. Stay clear of Avalanche Paths and Runout zones.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Heavy snow continues across SE Utah and is not expected to let up anytime soon. Water totals - as opposed to new snow depth - are impressive this morning. At the La Sal Snotel site we've had about 8 inches containing 1.3 inches of water. At our Gold Basin Study Plot as of yesterday afternoon we had 9 inches of snow containing 1.5 inches of water and we haven't made it up there yet today to measure. 7 inches new snow at Camp Jackson in the Abajos containing an inch of water. Densities in the 16-18 percent range are unusual and the Continental snowpack does not deal with High Density snow gracefully.

As it is a weekend and the plow guys probably won't come up from Monticello on a Sunday. Expect 4 wheel drive conditions on the access roads. Folks were not making it to the parking lot yesterday and today will be much worse!

The trail was groomed into Gold Basin Yesterday and the Lower Nordic Loop was done as well but it will be well eradicated by mid-day today!


RECENT ACTIVITY

None observed yet - stay tuned.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

The story line is very simple here this morning folks. We have heavy snow falling onto a weak early season continental snowpack. This means avalanches. We are currently expecting find CONSIDERABLE (LEVEL 3) Avalanche Danger on E -NE-NW facing slopes with pockets of HIGH (LEVEL 4) Avalanche Danger at and above treeline where additional drifting may occur. Expect to find CONSIDERABLE (LEVEL3) Avalanche Dangers at a minimum on all slopes steeper than 30 degrees and in avalanche runout zones. With the current forecast we expect the Avalanche Danger in all mountain areas to rise to HIGH (LEVEL 4) over the next 2 days.

This is no joke. With high water densities, the snow is forming strong slabs of wind drifted snow over very weak, faceted, old snow. This is a classic recipe for large and powerful avalanches. Natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are almost certain. Be careful in the backcountry and have a good idea of what's above you!


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Forecast for 10,000 feet: Mountain Snowfall will be measured in feet not inches if forecast verifies.

Today:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 36. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tonight:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a southwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Monday:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 32. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Monday Night:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 25. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Tuesday:

Snow. High near 35. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tuesday Night:

Snow. Low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday:

Snow. High near 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a low around 22.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The LSAC will be offering 2 avalanche classes this year. Our yearly Level 1 class will be held January 28, 29 and 30 of this winter season. The level 1 class focuses on avalanche phenomena, recognition and management of terrain where you might encounter these beasts and basic rescue.

This season, if we can pick up 6 participants, we are also hoping to do a Level 2 class. Tenative dates for the class are February 3-6. It is a 4-day class reviewing the basics covered in level 1, then carrying the subject matter further, exploring snowpack formation, crystal analysis, climactic effects and advanced rescue.

Call 435-636-3363 and speak to Dave or Max for more information or to sign up for one of the classes.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.