Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Volunteers! Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomer training is today! Learn how to groom and handle snowmachines. Cross-country and skate ski! Contribute to your community. Yeah. Call Kirsten at 260-0042 for more info or show up at the MARC at 7:30.


BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Expect to find CONSIDERABLE(level 3) avalanche danger today in the mountains of SE Utah. E-NE-NW faces where SW winds have deposited the bulk of the new snow are most suspect for avalanche hazard. Sunnier SE-SW-W facing slopes have less new snow being deposited on them but also have very weak old snow on them and still have the potential for avalanching if the get enough of a new snow load on them. Avalanche danger will rise to even higher levels if we reach forecast snow amounts.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

It looks like we've picked up 3" of new snow containing 4/10ths of an inch of water in the La Sals and 2 inches containing 3/10ths of an inch of water down in Abajos. Not exactly the dump of the year yet but a good start and some badly needed snow. Skiing and riding conditions will be improving and the avalanche danger will be on the rise. Remember folks, coverage is thin out there!

As it is a weekend and the plow guys probably won't come up from Monticello on a Saturday expect 4 wheel drive conditions on the access roads.

Grooming conditions will be a contest between mother nature and the volunteers. The groomer training is being held today and generally quite a bit of the track does get groomed when we hold the training, but, with 3-7 inches of snow in the forecast during the day today, we'll just have to wait and see. With luck grooming today will be a success and if not the backcountry will be much improved.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

A BIG change in the avalanche conditions are expected with this storm, and the continued unsettled weather that will follow it. Across S. Utah and Colorado, the snowpack is very weak and it simply will not take much of a new snow load to tip the balance. We haven't had much snow yet but we are already close to enough snow to initiate a mild avalanche cycle if we pick up another 4-5 inches today, a large avalanche cycle is a virtual certainty.

This scenario represented in the avalanche rose above is based on the last night's snow. We've had plenty of wind. If and when we get the forecast amounts of snow for today this avalanche danger in this forecast will be too low. We are currently calling the avalanche danger MODERATE(Level 2) on sunny side slopes (SE-SW-W facing) and CONSIDERABLE(Level 3) on shady side slopes. Shady E - NE - NW facing slopes have the weakest snow and the deeper snowpack and may well produce slides stepping down into old snow. Expect a rise in the avalanche danger as more snow falls today!


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Forecast for 10,000 feet: Looks like a change in the pattern is finally here.

Today:

Snow. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday Night:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday:

Snow. High near 36. Windy, with a west southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night:

Snow. Low around 24. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday:

Snow. High near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 26.

Wednesday:

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40.

Wednesday Night:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The LSAC will be offering 2 avalanche classes this year. Our yearly Level 1 class will be held January 28, 29 and 30 of this winter season. The level 1 class focuses on avalanche phenomena, recognition and management of terrain where you might encounter these beasts and basic rescue.

This season, if we can pick up 6 participants, we are also hoping to do a Level 2 class. Tenative dates for the class are February 3-6. It is a 4-day class reviewing the basics covered in level 1, then carrying the subject matter further, exploring snowpack formation, crystal analysis, climactic effects and advanced rescue.

Call 435-636-3363 and speak to Dave or Max for more information or to sign up for one of the classes.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.