SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

Volunteers! Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomer training is tomorrow December 18th! Learn how to groom and handle snowmachines. Cross-country and skate ski! Contribute to your community. Yeah. Call Kirsten at 260-0042 for more info or show up at the MARC at 7:30.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)

Danger Rose Tutorial

Expect an increase in the avalanche danger to CONSIDERABLE(Level 3) with the forecast amounts of new snow tonight and tomorrow. Snow coverage still very thin.

Will update tomorrow with current storm info.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Late update tonight . Relative Humidity values are on their way up in advance of the next storm and it looks like we might actually get some snow this time. Nothing measured up high yet. Expect new snow if you head up to the mountains on Saturday and let's hope the forecasts are right because we really need it. Coverage is still very thin so heads up!

As it is a weekend and the plow guys probably won't come up from Monticello on a Saturday expect 4 wheel drive conditions on the access roads.

Grooming conditions will be a contest between mother nature and the volunteers. The groomer training is being held tomorrow and generally quite a bit of the track does get groomed when we hold the training, but, with 3-7 inches of snow in the forecast during the day tomorrow, we'll just have to wait and see. With luck cross-country skiing will

THREAT #1

WHERE

PROBABILITY

SIZE

TREND

Over the next 48 hours.

A BIG change in the avalanche conditions are expected with this storm, and the continued unsettled weather that will follow it. Across S. Utah and Colorado, the snowpack is very weak and it simply will not take much of a new snow load to tip the balance. It is difficult to predict the avalanche danger from a weather forecast, but snowpit tests done so far this season indicate very weak snowpack structures here in SE Utah. If the weather forecast proves right, with snow this weak on the ground, predicting the ensuing slide cycle is relatively straightforward.

IF we get the forecast snowfall tonight and tomorrow and IF it continues to snow into next week as forecast, we're likely to see a large avalanche cycle. This scenario represented in the avalanche rose above is based on the forecast tonight and not on observed values for snowfall and wind. Take it with a measure of flexibility please. If we get less snow than forecast the avalanche danger will not change from the last forecast much. If we go over the forecast amounts, things might get pretty dangerous out there. This forecast is based on the snow and wind totals expected over night and with that we are calling the avalanche danger MODERATE(Level 2) on sunny side slopes (SE-SW-W facing) and CONSIDERABLE(Level 3) on shady side slopes. Shady E - NE - NW facing slopes have the weakest snow and the deeper snowpack and may well produce slides stepping down into old snow.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Forecast for 10,000 feet: Looks like a change in the pattern

Tonight:

A chance of snow before 11pm, then snow and areas of blowing snow after 11pm. Low around 17. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 23. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 37. Windy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night:

Snow and areas of blowing snow. Low around 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Monday:

Snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night:

Snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Tuesday Night:

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25.

Wednesday:

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

The LSAC will be offering 2 avalanche classes this year. Our yearly Level 1 class will be held January 28, 29 and 30 of this winter season. The level 1 class focuses on avalanche phenomena, recognition and management of terrain where you might encounter these beasts and basic rescue.

This season, if we can pick up 6 participants, we are also hoping to do a Level 2 class. Tenative dates for the class are February 24-27. It is a 4-day class reviewing the basics covered in level 1, then carrying the subject matter further, exploring snowpack formation, crystal analysis, climactic effects and advanced rescue.

Call 435-636-3363 and speak to Dave or Max for more information or to sign up for one of the classes.

Volunteers! Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomer training is on December 18th. Learn how to groom and handle snowmachines. Cross-country and skate ski! Contribute to your community. Yeah. Call Kirsten at 260-0042 for more info or show up at the MARC at 7:30.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.