Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Winter continues today in the mountains with pockets of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger accumulating on upper and mid elevation slopes downwind of our strong North winds. This despite a rather small 3-5 inches of new snow accumulation in the La Sals (less in the Abajos). Good powder conditions can still be found on sheltered north facing slopes.

We are hesitantly calling the avalanche danger elsewhere MODERATE but feel we are on the upper end of that rating. Winds are the major player here. They've been really blowing from the North. Wet slides will be possible when the sun comes out this weekend so get off sunny slopes before they get too sloppy.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

As of this afternoon snow showers are winding down after yet another storm here in SE Utah. We've had 3-5 inches of pretty heavy and very wind affected snow across the region. Ridgetop winds are currently nuking with wind speeds climbing all day to 30 and 40 mph averages and gusts into the 60's. Corn Conditions will be on hold for a few days while high pressure re-establishes itself over the area. Good conditions can be found on below treeline open slopes that are mostly north facing. Slopes with an east or west facing component to them have been affected by sun. Watch for wind slab development up high!

Roads to Mountain Trailheads will not be cleared until Monday but new snow at lower elevations has been limited so far. With 4wd or Chains roads

Grooming has not been done today.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Nothing of note today. Check out Avalanche List for the latest avalanche activity and history of the large avalanche into old snow that a ski touring party released in the Abajos.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Winds have been powering up today, steadily increasing since 6:00 AM this morning to 40 mph hourly averages and gusts in the 60's. With up to 5 inches of new snow measured in the La Sals, expect to find wind slabs developing above treeline and in open areas below treeline, particularly on South facing slopes.

These slabs may be small and pockety and with such high winds they will not be limited to ridgetops. Expect to find deposition zones well below ridges. We are calling the Avalanche Danger MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE near treeline and above. We haven't had much new snow but the winds have been howling and forming thick, rounded pillows of skier triggerable snow.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

We can expect the snow to get moving as solar radiation and warm temperatures heat the snowpack up this weekend. Tomorrow, the first day after the storm, won't be as hot but the solar radiation on the new snow (expect a fair amount on sunny slopes with the north winds!) will typically get things moving. Sunday looks to be quite warm so wet slides are almost certain in the afternoon.


THREAT #3

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next ?? hours.

Persistent weak layers may still exist in the form of buried SURFACEHOAR layers. If you find yourself on a cross-loaded slope with a shady aspect at mid-elevations, the risk of knocking out a deep slab still exists. We did have a close call last weekend. While unlikely with the north winds we've been having, Localized winds can be different, and a loaded, steep NE-N or NWfacing slopes is a potential problem still.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Tonight:

Snow showers likely, mainly before midnight. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 5. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night:

Mostly clear, with a low around 15. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Sunday:

Sunny, with a high near 43. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday Night:

Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.

Monday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.

Monday Night:

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Tuesday:

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.