Moab Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Dave Medara

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.

Avalanche Danger in the Mountains of SE Utah remain at the CONSIDERABLE (3) level with continued new snowfall and critical wind speeds (above 15 mph) from the north. Sunny skies are going to make their play in SE Utah today so wet slides may also become a player today or tomorrow whenever the clouds abate.


CURRENT CONDITIONS

Another 4-6 Inches of new snow has been measured in the Mountains of SE Utah this morning. 4" at the La Sal Snotel, 5" Inches at the Abajo Snotel, and 6" at the Gold Basin study plot in the La Sals. Great skiing and riding conditions can be expected today on all aspects as the sun should not have done too much damage to the sunny side slopes except at low elevations. Winds have been up above 15 mph from the North this morning for the last 4 hours so expect some wind damage above treeline from that and some wind slab development as well.

Expect 4wd or chains to be necessary to reach mountain TH's today until road crews can get up on the mountain.

La Sal Nordic Track is scheduled to be rolled today, but with one machine and all the new snow, don't be disappointed if it's still a bit soft.


RECENT ACTIVITY

Nothing observed from this storm or last weekend's storm.


THREAT #1

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

More new snow and increasing winds are keeping the overall Avalanche Danger rating at CONSIDERABLE (3) again today. Winds are going to be the major player today with all the new snow to move around and the critical velocities we've had from North winds for the last 5 hours. Expect to find he highest danger above treeline today on sunny side slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Open, below treeline slopes that have been affected by winds today should also be suspect. Avoid smooth, possibly hollow sounding pillows of wind drifted snow. These are potentially wind slabs built up on downwind slopes by these North winds. While we've only had 4-6 inches overnight, the winds and all the snow we've had for the last 5 days that is still available for transport could up the ante very easily. Wind loading can build deposition zones up to 10 times the depth of measured precipitation and 3-5 times that depth very quickly.


THREAT #2

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 48 hours.

Persistent slabs on surface hoar layer in the snowpack are still a potential problem. 4-5 feet down is the Feb. 1st surface hoar layer with large 2-4 mm feathery crystals still intact. It's reactivity in snow pit tests is striking. While unlikely to be triggered by the weight of a skier buried at this depth, the combination of new snow drifting and this layer could bring out a big surprise. Surface Hoar from Mar. 4th has also been noted 18-20 inches deep at this point. We haven't seen the reactivity on the Mar. 4th layer displayed by the more deeply buried layer, but it is worth keeping and eye on as it is much more likely to be triggered by the weight of a skier or rider.


THREAT #3

WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Wet slides bringing out snow from the last two storm cycles could pop out when the sun breaks through the lingering clouds today and tomorrow. Be careful in the afternoon when things heat up. Places like Goldminer's and the Showoff run will be no place to be with solar radiation heating up this new snow.


MOUNTAIN WEATHER

National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :

Today:

A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 11am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 27. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight:

Mostly clear, with a low around 11. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Friday:

Sunny, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph.

Friday Night:

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph.

Saturday:

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

Southwest

wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Saturday Night:

A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 17.

Sunday:

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.

Sunday Night:

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Monday:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.


GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..

This advisory will expire in 48 hours.

We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363.


This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.


This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.